Will the revenge-minded Crimson Tide overlook a wounded, weakened FSU team?
Just about a year ago, the No 13 Alabama Crimson Tide spent a summer jawing about disrespect coming out of Tallahassee, downplaying the Seminoles and pooh-poohing away their confidence. They did this despite FSU having plenty of talent, a wet field to work with, a friendly Doak Campbell home turf, and a familiar nemesis — Gus Malzahn.
Then the worst happened: the Seminoles backed it up, spanking the Tide decisively, and sending Alabama home, reeling. It was a loss they fought all season to overcome, and a narrative that it never really shook, for deserved reasons in retrospect.
But, it’s a different year, a different venue, and even a different ‘Bama — the No. 10 Crimson Tide (2-0, 1-0) has 51 new players, 17 new starters, three new position coaches, and has been reborn hard where it counts the most: up front. Can FSU contend with a talent deficit, the looming termination of Mike Norvell, a revenge-minded Tide squad, and bad personnel matchups?
Like most rhetorical questions, the answer is no.
Tale of the Tape
First, take a look at these stats. Goodness.
That’s already bad enough, but when you do a little more diving into the analytics, it gets far worse, particularly on defense.
The Noles are ranked as follows:
- Per-Play efficiency D: 57th
- Explosiveness allowed: 80th
- Negative plays created: 72nd
- Drive efficiency D: 82nd
- Pass efficiency D: 70th
- Run efficiency D: 43rd
Offensive efficiency is, as you’d expect, a bit better…at least for the ground game.
- Rush efficiency: 7th
- Pass efficiency: 83rd
- Drive efficiency: 36th
- Per Play efficiency: 30th
- Negative play efficiency: 5th
A clear picture emerges of a team that is decent up front on defense, but not great, and whose offense is keyed by a one-dimensional (but effective) running game. At the same time, it’s a team with talent on the outside who can’t get the ball to their most dynamic player, and a secondary that couldn’t stop a fart in church.
FSU’s Offense:
Look: it’s FSU, they’re going to have talent, and speed to burn. Always have, always will. Not even Norvell can screw that up. But like spackling a ceiling while on a PCP bender, the application of that talent is uneven to say the least.
But Ground Zero of this suck begins at the weakest spot on the unit, and a bugaboo in almost every one of Norvell’s seven seasons: Quarterback.
Ashton Daniels is slaw AF. Dude is a big ole’ runner, with a big ole’ arm…who can’t read defenses, rarely delivers an accurate throw, makes too many mental and physical mistakes, and generally has been paid for potential rather than output for years. He’s been a sub-60 passer his entire career (including this season), and his successes have been limited to dinks and dunks. His 6.5 yards PA ranks 120th in the nation, and his 120 QBR is “good” for just 99th in the nation. Even with one of the nation’s most dangerous wideouts, and a full game against New Mexico State, he’s somehow just at 163 YPG. That is unfortunate too, because Duce Robinson really is wasting his career in Tallahassee — he’ll look great in Buckeye Scarlet or Burnt Orange next season. Book it.
Daniels may get a few YOLO shots in: these are the best wideouts ‘Bama has seen to date, and the Tide are gambling a lot more in 2026, and the underneath stuff is going to be aggravating. But Ashton figures to be most dangerous when the play breaks down and he takes off. Woodson, Dre Jr. and Metz are going to have to be on their toes and not let him do much damage or get too deep into the second level.
The offensive line has been steady; they generally avoid negative plays surrendered, and you rarely get a clean TFL opportunity against the Noles. So, at least they got this part right. That said, they do give up a lot of pressures, and Daniels’ legs have kept them out of what would ordinarily be trouble. This unit is far better putting a hat on a hat and blasting holes open for the true heart of the offense, one of the nation’s best kept secrets, running back Ousmane Kromah.
Kromah is a big kid, and he doesn’t shy away from contact. But he has amazing footwork, and good patience and vision. He has repeatedly made chicken salad out of chicken shit this season with his ability to let the play open up in front of him, cut back, dance, and follow blockers. And while he’s not a burner, for a back his size (6’1″, 228), he plays a lot faster than he looks.
The Tide’s ground defense has been outstanding this season, but it has not truly been tested this season with by a high quality weapon like Kromah — they’ll get that chance Saturday. He’s an impressive player, and so far a one-man show for this floundering offense.
FSU Defense
If you think the Seminoles offense is bad, wait till you see these blue-chip drips. To say that they’ve been failed in evaluation, development, or coaching — and likely all three — is a serious understatement.
Perhaps a box score is a better indication than just reciting stats by rote. Please, do bear in mind, this is the 132nd ranked team in the country, and the New Mexico State offense did not ring these numbers up in garbage time. Hell, in a 34-17 game that was only put away late, you can’t even say there was garbage time to speak of.
You simply cannot justify surrendering almost 300 yards to NMSU through the air, or giving up 64% on third down…or allowing five explosive pass plays to a passing game that entered the contest ranked 133rd in that category. And don’t even ask about the SMU game: Seven explosives, three tuddies, and 430 yards allowed.
If you’re looking for positives, FSU did force four turnovers in their season opener vs. SMU…that the offense promptly pissed away…and then they only forced one against the woeful Aggies, who entered the game at -3 TOM on the season. In other words, you have to practically give the game away to FSU, and even then there’s no guarantee that the offense can do anything with it.
And, as with the Tide last season, the secondary may be facing the brunt of the damage done to them, but the weakness begins up front. Sure, the Noles aren’t a sieve against the run or anything, but they’re not making an impact either. They’re just 104th in TFL, generating fewer than five per outing; the pass rush isn’t much better: just three sacks generated all season. And when you combine a blech defensive line with a dreadful secondary you get the 94th worst 3rd down defense in the country.
This doesn’t even look like an FSU defense.
Bottom Line, Prediction, and How to Watch
This is the worst possible matchup for FSU, and it’s not coming at the worst possible time with Norvell’s job security riding on every game. Alabama may find sledding a bit tough in the early going on the ground, but I’m confident in saying that the Kentucky secondary and defensive line were superior to these Noles — and in the case of the DL, far better at that.
Offensively, FSU isn’t going to try and trick you to win this one. They have one path forward: lots of Daniels scrambles and pray that Kromah can take over the game. Expect a very conservative game plan from FSU to shorten the game. The last thing Norvell wants to do on the road against a far superior team is trot out that secondary vs. Alabama’s weapons in the passing game, or put the game on Daniels’ right arm against the Tide pass rush and secondary.
And it will still fail.
Our call:
Alabama 44
FSU 10
The game will be ABC’s national 2:30 broadcast, and will also be available on YouTube TV, Sling, FUBO, and ESPN+.
Hope for the best, and Roll Tide.
GIF test two
This better work.
I’m gonna need to see at least a few more weeks of continued improvement and at least one game where they go 4 quarters without fucking around before I trust this coaching staff again.
They are trending in the right direction but I still fear a DeBoering…
God, please don’t let this become a recurring thing like Clemsoning.
That’s fair. And I want to see it against a quality opponent like A&M etc.
They’re somehow worse with your eyes than they are on paper. And they are bad on paper.
Off the subject, Georgia is going to destroy Arky by 30 without eve trying.