Giving Away Money 2026: Week 4 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.

Week 3: 8-1
2026: 19-7
Mortal Lock: 3–1

Last week shoulda’ been hella’ profitable for everyone, if you followed the math on this here website: we went 8-1 on the week, and personally I was up $430 on all of my personal wagers. That follows up a great Week 2 as well, and we’re rebounding very nicely from a bad Week Zero on the year.

Now, let’s check our homework from last week, and move on to Week 4.

Week 3 Postmortem

Told ya’ :

Va. Tech -3 @ Maryland: This is a suspiciously low spread, given how well the Hokies are playing in all three phases. Franklin knows Locks’ offense intimately from prior Big 10 play, and he has the athletes to keep it in check, while exploiting a soft UMD linebacking corps with underneath passes and RTDB. Va. Tech may wake from this dream at some point, but it probably won’t be this week. The honeymoon continues in Blacksburg. Gobble Gobble MFer.

Verdict: The Hokies weren’t’ able to completely bottle up that potent UMD offense, but they did flex some scoring muscles of their own en route to a cozy 11-point road win, 38-27.

What the?:

Well, we only missed on one game last week, and it was Alabama, who decided to look like a WAC team on defense, after a few weeks of choking people to death. So, here we go.

Alabama -18. v. FSU:…Ashton Daniels isn’t going to have a clean pocket, and FSU’s best weapon — the ground game — runs head-first into the Tide’s strength: defensive front. Alabama covers, and it could be pretty damn ugly if they’re clicking.

Verdict: Daniels didn’t have a clean pocket. It didn’t matter — he had a Duce Robinson and YOLO balls vs. hapless Dijon Lee. Bama still won by 14, but that does us no good as bettors. And, ues, it was “pretty damn ugly,” but not in the way we had hoped for.

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On to to Week four, with all odds via Vegas Insider.

And if you don’t know, here’s the skinny: Every week, I pick half a dozen games over here (and you can pay me eight bucks a month and get all of them, every week. Always. Be. Closing.): One to stay well away from or that is too close to call, one we like, one we love, an underdog, a ginormous spread that the data still thinks is feasible, and a mortal lock.

Just like the last few weeks, we’re giving you a few bonus picks too! This may be the last week I do so though. #TANSTAAFL

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Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:

Arizona -10.5 @ Washington State

Don’t get caught up in the jerseys or the records, not even the individual talent of a guy like Fifita. The hometown Cougars play surprisingly well in the secondary, and Arizona is a passing team first and foremost. Wazzu has already shut down the Huskies passing attack in the Apple Cup, and that is a far more balanced offense than this one. Looks to be far too close to call.

Florida -3 vs. Ole Miss

Every single algorithm points to UF, but every single one, and the composite, is too close to call. I personally think Chambliss is going to have a field day against that secondary. At some point we have to stop selling the Rebels short; they’ve already beaten Louisville and LSU. So, I may go against the data and take the Rebs, but don’t listen to me. I’m a terrible hunch gambler.

Absolutely not.

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A Few We like:

New Mexico -11 @ NMSU:

The Lobos haven’t just owned the Aggies, they’ve punished their cross-state rivals. The numbers don’t see the Aggies’ anemic offense doing very much, nor will they have very many answers for a punishing Lobos rushing attack. If UNM gets rolling, it could be a blowout in this bad blood rivalry. New Mexico is the call.

Luhvl -13 v Wake Forest:

Speaking of not sleeping on teams, the Cardinals can’t stay overlooked much longer. They went punch for punch with the Rebels, and dominated SMU last week to take the penultimate spot in the ACC behind Miami — though one suspects Va. Tech will have something to say about the conference race too. This game won’t be a beating, the Deacs defense is better than the sum of their parts. But the Cardinals can beat you running or passing, and the secondary is excellent. The only thing to watch is the natural UL hangover over last week’s far more meaningful game. Still should be a cover in the 14-17-point range at home. Luhvl.

James Madison -6 @ Old Dominion:

This could just as well be the Mortal Lock, despite it being a rivalry game. The Monarchs are going to find tough sledding against a JMU defense that could be the best among all G6 teams. The offense is still the same punishing ground attack we’ve come to know and expect out of JMU. While Old Dominion is stout up front, they’re having serious issues against play action and in special teams. Those are the sorts of things JMU will pounce on. James Madison

Baylor -9.5 v Colorado:

There’s turmoil in Boulder…again…with Prime dismissing players for laughing in the face of a blowout, losing games badly, a passing game that has gone AWOL, and a defense that been exposed by everyone not named Georgia Tech. Baylor is by no stretch great, but they have a capable defense and an offense that thrives off of explosive passes. This should be a nice, booster-friendly home beating for the Bears. How bad is Ga. Tech exactly? Baylor.

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Underdog With Bite

It looks to be another decent week for the ‘dogs, and so we’re going to stay inside the SEC for this one, one of the week’s more baffling spreads:

Auburn -10 v Vanderbilt:

I have crunched the numbers on this a dozen ways, and I still can’t figure it out. You probably can’t either. Auburn can’t run the ball, and Byrnum Brown has YOLO balls and scrambles. That’s the Tiger offense. Vandy is still somewhat finding its way and identity, but a forgiving third down Auburn defense vs. the pass should help them get there. Most of the data project that the ‘Dores covers as a ‘dog. And I’m not sure that they don’t win straight up either. VU

Ginormous Spread Worth Your While

Notre Dame -27.5 v Purdue:

The Irish get to play with their food again. The Boilermakers have all kinds of weaknesses on the denfensive end, and they’re not going to just be able to drop back and beat the Irish throwing four dozen times either. UND is simply too big, too fast, too strong, too talented, and too good to avoid this being anything other than a beatdown. Irish it is.

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Mortal Lock

Unlike last week, where the numbers loved almost no one, this week there is one team in particular that screams out at you with perhaps the friendliest spread of the week.

Mississippi State -5.5 vs. Mizzou.

The Bulldogs finally get a home night game, and man, is Mizzou in for a world of hell with that drunken, clattering commotion. And on the field, it may be even worse. The Tigers haven’t faced a concerted passing attack yet, except perhaps Troy, and they’ve certainly not seen anything like Lebby’s offense…and there is only one Kamario Taylor, and they get a sample of him Saturday night. Offensively, the Tigers still have an iffy passing game of their own, and that butts next to MSU’s best defensive strength: stopping the run.

One gets the sense Mississippi State won’t spot MU a 16-point lead then come storming back. The Bulldogs are apt to control this one all game.

Bulldogs.

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Alright, that’s a fork in Week 4. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just $7.84 a month, still cheaper than Fairlife Milk — why the odd price? Because those are actual charges from Patreon, Apple, and the card processor. I’m only making five bucks, which criminal.