What, if anything, will we learn from the Committee’s first playoff rankings of the year?
That loud gunshot you heard wasn’t your local Dollar Tree being jacked. No, that was the starting gun for the true start of the College Football Playoff season. And, if ESPN is to be believed from their coverage, the real beginning of the CFB season and the only one that matters.
What will we learn tonight from the thirteen hopelessly conflicted athletic directors, coaches, and conference administrators who allegedly cobble together an impartial ranking of the nation’s Top 25 teams, with the top dozen getting a space in the television cash bonanza that has destroyed the sport we all love? Importantly, will what they say tonight be a touchstone, a set of rules that will remain consistent throughout the next four weeks? Or, rather, will we see what we’ve seen far too often of late: the Committee shooting an arrow and then painting a bullseye around it after the fact to justify a predetermined outcome?
We already know the published guidelines have been flat-out ignored before, such as counting total victories ahead of quality ones, ignoring SOS, etc. Can they at least be consistent from week-to-week? And do they view this as an exercise in rewarding the quality over the quantity? Will “most deserving” nudge out “least objectionable,” as Isaac frames it?
I guess we find out tonight. In either case, Alabama should be in that initial group of 12, though the talking heads don’t like the Tide’s chances, and think UA will begin the silly season on the outside, looking-in.
Our rabble-rousing roundtable took a stab at a few questions surrounding tonight’s first rankings. And, alongside Erik, Isaac, and TBT, we are very pleased to announce an addition to Thin Red Line’s bullpen. Love him, or hate him, our newest staff writer is always erudite and provocative. You’ll find something to say about his takes, one way or another.
Welcome, CHayate.
I think we can all agree that Miami, as one of the two major undefeated squads, is going to be number one. But who has actually earned the top spot?
Isaac: There are two conflicting schools of thought on these things: the Most Deserving, and the Least Objectionable. When they arrive at the same place, you have no problem. But since there are too many stops along the spectrum of measuring “quality,” you end up going for Least Objectionable.
If Miami wins out, it makes everything easy for slapping the top seed on them. Likely enough to outpace a Georgia team that is mathematically better, but has a blemish.
TBT (and we did warn you, he’s a troll): Maybe UGA. But their schedule was a joke before playing Alabama. Also, they haven’t looked great the last two weeks.
CHayate: No one has looked consistently dominant. The contenders are divided into teams that have looked dominant squashing a row tomato cans, undefeated or 1 loss teams with a resume of struggle wins or a 3rd group of teams with maddeningly inconsistent performances against tough schedules. Seemingly everyone has injury issues. If really put to the question I would probably say Georgia. Aside from their pants-shitting episode against Aubie they have consistently played the best football besides Miami. Head to head I might still give the edge to the Hurricanes by virtue of having a better pass rush and space alien Malachi Toney.
Erik: I think at the end of the day, who you beat, less any losses, has to be the main criteria, right? In that vein, I’d give the overall No. 1 spot to Georgia. They have a road win over the No. 8 team, a thrashing of the Dirt Burglars, and beat then-17 Florida in a near-shutout. This spot would go to Texas, but for the two losses.
There has been speculation from major outlets like On3, ESPN etc. that Alabama is going to be one of the first four out, despite being eighth in both human polls, 6th under the old BCS formula, and 7th per Sagarin. Where would you put the Crimson Tide going into the first CFP rankings?
Isaac: Honestly, I would have us just outside looking in. We obviously can play our way in so it isn’t the death-knell that was starting lower in a two or four team selection. Our Bad looked really Bad, but our Great has been god-tier. Just depends on what they look at (and what the committee needs to justify.) The head-to-head circle of suck is gonna get someone.
TBT: I would have them ranked between 8 or 10. Their last loss was bad but they’ve been plagued with injuries as well.
CHayate: I guess this is where we see if dumbass Greg Sankey caving to the Big 10 and going to a 9-game schedule while retaining the existing P4 OOC game mandate pays in exchange for the totally unbiased and neutral and super football smart committee considering schedule strength and not just looking at the number in the loss column actually happens (hint: I think Greg screwed over the conference for bedazzled pinto beans).
I would put us about 7th. A healthy Bama team that plays a clean game could beat anyone in the top 5. Georgia needed injuries, black swan event fumble luck, and ref incompetence to win a close game. The Tennessee loss is black mark but the Kentucky and South Carolina wins have looked better through the weeks.
Erik: The Tide has two losses. One was mansome, one was ugly as hell. Nevertheless, Alabama is not ranked any lower than 6th in any poll or computer ranking. Add to that the nation’s No. 4 SOS and the No. 7 SOV, and I think Alabama deserves to be exactly that: 6th. Notre Dame or Indiana or Utah couldn’t survive an average October in the SEC. Take that to your grave.
Assume that Alabama makes the playoffs, but does not get a home game: Who do you not want to face in the opening round on a neutral field?
Isaac: I’m going on the assumption that Utah snares a bye. They play hard. But with the Utes relaxing (and Julian Sayin not around to throw YOLO to Smith) I would say stay away from Indiana. I’m not worried about the game, just the bull$#!t in the lead-up.
TBT: I have no clue. No one is consistently good.
CHayate: Miami. Big physical team with an efficient, veteran QB and an alien on the perimeter who cna take advantage of our mediocre pass rush, spotty tackling, bad man coverage.
Erik: I think a team that can run the ball very well, has a great defensive line, has a quarterback who can use his legs when the play breaks down, and can stress the Tide’s defensive backs with a lot of communication errors and verticality is a recipe for a nightmare matchup: So, I’m going with a rematch against LSU. That roster and playbook seem almost custom-made to beat this year’s iteration of the Crimson Tide.
Of the top 12 or 15 teams that can make a plausible claim for a playoff spot, who is the biggest fraud?
Isaac: So far, it’s BYU and Notre Dame. The close game between them aside, they have played light schedules. But we will soon find out something about each, against Utah and Miami.
TBT: anOSU w/o Sayin is just dreadful. Indiana is a dead man walking too.
CHayate: Can I pick an 8-way tie? I don’t think most of these teams are anything special. If I have to pick one gimme Indiana. A bunch of struggle bus escapes against nobodies and a close loss to an OSU team that can’t run the ball is technically a playoff resume but color me totatlly unconvinced.
Erik: The first team that lines up and smacks Notre Dame in the mouth with an equivalent level of talent is going to walk out with a three-score win. The Irish stink of so much fraud that it’s a wonder the FBI haven’t driven down from Chicago yet.
Assume that Alabama is the field of 12: what team do you predict is going to get shafted tonight?
Isaac: If Alabama is in, Tennessee is out — and the head-to-head will have Vawls howling.
TBT: It won’t be FSU, I can tell you that much.
CHayate: This is the first litmus test of how hard the committee was bullshitting us about valuing strength of schedule. Hopefully its Notre Dame. Their resume is a pathetic collection of geriatric seal-clubbing and a loss to middle class BYU. My suspicion is its likely to be us. We really looked like ass against Tennessee and I don’t think the 2nd half of the TAMU game was enough to erase the stain. If not us its likely a Big-12 or ACC team.
Erik: It could be Texas, and if that’s the case, they should raise unholy hell. The loss to OU was bad, sure. But no one else has their CV of quality wins: Ohio State, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. For good measure throw in a win over 7-1 AAC-leader UTSA too. No one’s touching that.
What’s the best method for determining a national football champion?
Isaac: We’ve had so many. But we seemed to miss the +1 concept. Play the bowls. Keep the bowls. And based on those, then pick two for a final game. The 12 and 24 team behemoths will too often be decided by Loki and his Injury Squad. And that’s not good for the game, nor the players.
TBT: Some form of a modified BCS formula to determine a set group for a playoff (4 – 8 teams).
CHayate: My Gen X heart will always like the +1 determined with the BCS. Play all the old New Years Day matchups (Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Rose, Cotton) and then let a combination of polls and computers select the championship matchup. This hydra of a playoff system is just lame. All its really doing is incentivizing teams to go independent and club P4 basement seals for 10 of 12 games. The controversy and ambiguity of the old system was a feature not a bug.
Erik: Why do we even need a champ? The sport survived for a full century without an official one. But, if we’re going to do it, we should do it it right, with a radical rethink. And ladies and gents, we at TRL have created just such a system that uses a modified BCS in a playoff, that still honors bowls and bowl tie-ins, and preserves the sanctity of the regular season. You can read about it here. And Part Two is here, comparing five different proposed and tested methods.
Welp. That wraps up our first Roundtable of the season. We hope it gave you something to think about in advance of tonight.
Speaking of tonight: At 5:30 Central, we’ll be throwing it over to the Gumpstream for your takes, reactions, and angry tomato tossing. Join us there, as we liveblog the CFP Committee’s first ranking reveal, and toss out our initial takes, as well as any news that may break (recall, Alabama basketball season also starts tonight. If you’d like to check out a season prospectus, we’ve got you covered).
Your turn:
I voted “Who knows what these knuckleheads are going to do?”, because who knows what these knuckleheads are going to do? But if I had to guess, I would guess they put us in the 6-10 range. I don’t have a better feel for it than that.
I will be fascinated to see where they put the Domers, as it will basically telegraph what the committee intends to do with them. If they have them top 5, a playoff berth is a foregone conclusion. If they have them 8-10 (or lower), Saturday vs Miami is a must-win; lose, and they’re not getting in.
Human polls actually have us at 9 rather than 8.
I’m buying condoms because we’re getting fucked tonight.
I don’t think it really matters. They know we play LSU this weekend and its a borderline elimination game for both teams barring absolute chaos down the stretch of the season. I sincerely doubt the loser of this weekend gets in.
it’s all but certainly an elimination game, yeah. Everyone knows that I think.
You can’t have three losses in the SEC by 1 November, and then not have to rely on a whole lot of chaos to try and get to Atlanta.
And I would wager we even have to win out if we got there with three losses. Ditto LSU, Florida, Missouri, Texas, etc..