On a neutral field, healthy, playing their game, we still think ‘Bama is the best team in the country
Rejoice, for this is the day that we Gump. Oh, and we are Gumping hard this morning
If you’re like most Alabama fans, you’ve really been looking forward to that first round home playoff game under the December lights of Bryant Denny Stadium. Sadly, we won’t get to experience that this year.
And that’s because as of today, Alabama won’t play a first round playoff game. Instead, the CFP Committee vaulted the Tide into the No. 3 spot last night, where Alabama now stands to gain a first-round bye.
It wasn’t just the eyeballs and beating ranked teams either (though ‘Bama has that in their favor) that impressed the committee:
“I think you look first at Alabama went on the road and beat the team that we have ranked sixth this week in Kentucky,” Yurachek said. “They also beat South Carolina, who’s ranked in our top 25. And I think many forget that they went on the road and beat Mississippi State when Mississippi State was undefeated and at full strength. We really valued that as a strong win for Alabama back there in the early part of the season when Mississippi [State], again, they had that quarterback, Kamario Taylor, that was very, very good, and Mississippi State was on a roll at that time.”
It was also the analytics, where the Crimson Tide have established a case to be the nation’s best team, at least on paper:
This is exactly what we observed in yesterday’s CFP Rankings Roundtable: the Tide have the No. 1 SOS, the No. 1 SOR. And they’re not doing it on one side of the ball, either. Alabama is 5th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency. To make matters worse for opposing teams, the Tide are also starting to get healthy…and now they have an extra week to prep in the playoffs, while their opposition will be coming off a brutal win-or-go-home contests.
Barring the wheels completely falling off the Tide (or one of its quality wins completely evaporating), I don’t see ‘Bama sliding lower than 4th. There is a good chance of that happening too, since Texas still has a road game against LSU, are presently in the 7-spot, and it would be impossible to ignore their complete body of work in SEC games, as well as a thumping of the 7-2 UTSA Roadrunners, who play North Texas this weekend for the AAC pole position.
There is a slight chance the Vols could do so as well. They host the LSU Tigers, as well as travel to Aggieland. They presently are in the 8th spot. But if everything plays out to chalk, they would be a first round home playoff contestant, and the ‘Horns and the Tide may swap spots.
There is also a slight chance the UCLA Bruins could jump ‘Bama too, since they have a season-ender against No. 18 USC. But the real threat here is Texas or Tennessee. And as distasteful as it may be, Alabama fans should root mightily for Lane Kiffin this weekend in the Choke Bowl.
This is not just academic speculation or spitballing either. We saw these flip-flops and jumps play out with Indiana this week: every one of their Big 10 wins came over teams who lost this weekend, and their one loss is now to a three-loss Buckeyes team that looks lost. So, Alabama can definitely be jumped. Likewise, they can raise a spot this weekend too. The Utah Utes travel to Arizona for a very tricky game against the high-octane Wildcats; that is a very loseable game for them.
But, for now, Alabama is in the catbird seat. They have a bye. If they keep winning, they will likely remain a Top 4 team. And, buddy, are the Vols and Hoosiers pissed about it too. But they can’t cry about it either, especially Indiana. And the Vols will take any occasion to whine that they can. The Committee really meant it this year when they said that the strength of record is going to matter. Because so far, it has.
And, I should also add that it means the Iron Bowl has become especially dangerous: the program that lives to win one game a year, that aims to be a spoiler, will be gunning for the ultimate troll job in Tuscaloosa. I don’t expect Moscow Malzahn’s team to get it done, but you can bet the ‘Bama coaching staff is already mentally getting the team ready for it.
The CFP Rankings also show why a 24-team playoff will be a trainwreck of gross football
At No. 20: Ohio State, which is also 6–3 and has already commenced the scapegoating for this disaster by firing its special teams coach. The Buckeyes have lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time in 15 years, have lost consecutive games by double digits for the first time in 22 years and played out the final minutes of a home blowout against Oregon in front of thousands of empty seats. You think that fan base wants to see this team play a December road game at No. 13 Wake Forest?
Who’s clamoring for a Wake Forest-Buckeyes game? How did the sport ever survive without that Utah-Missouri clash? You excited for North Texas-Georgia?
Blech.
And, of course, that playoff is going to be all that coaches are concerned about. Because the new reality with two-dozen (mostly undeserving, mostly mediocre) teams is that you make the playoffs, or you’re out on your ass.
If you thought the 12-team playoff created a world of FOMO for everyone who didn’t get in, just wait until two-thirds of the power conference schools realize every November that they landed on the wrong side of a pass-fail test.
When the standard is really, really high to make the playoff, you can at least rationalize not making it. Even now, in the 12-team version, we have seen good teams like Texas, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt last year all fall short because there wasn’t enough room and the margin for error was small. If you fell short of the cut line, you were in good company.
So when you change the threshold so dramatically, you are of course including more teams worthy of a shot. But you are also creating a new standard for what constitutes a successful season. It’s inevitable that, starting next year, fans and boosters will consume college football in a much more binary fashion: You’re either in or you’re out, and it’s a big problem if you’re out.
Beating LSU is something of a habit here in Tuscaloosa.
The No. 8 Crimson Tide soccer team (3-seed SEC) knocked off the Tigers yesterday to advance to the semis of the SEC tournament. They will face the 2-seed Sakerlina Gamecocks in what is a de facto SECCG, since the other half of the bracket is far weaker (9 Texas, 5 Arkansas).
Best of luck, and Row Tahd
Amari Allen came back this year because he needed to work on his guard skills. He’s simply not long enough to be a wing in the NBA, and it especially showed in his defense. All he’s done since moving to the 2-spot is be one of the best players in America, and its very best at finding open shooters.
Combine that with his improved range from the perimeter, and a better commitment to defense, and A5 is having an All-American start and will certainly be a First Rounder in next spring’s NBA draft.
I believe Saban calls that “creating value for yourself.” It’s no surprise that in a program that can’t drop $30m like Duke or Michigan, that Nate Oats has adopted that same mantra as well when recruiting and developing players.
Before Alabama fans can start dreaming of New Year in Pasadena or Dallas. it must first get past a pesky Vanderbilt Commodore team. And I think we all know what happened last time KDB and crew went to Nashville.
Interestingly, this morning he also addressed the Tide allowing so many yards to LSU:
For our part, we think that Wommack had a masterful game plan. You’re never going to be able to stop that offense from moving the ball completely, particularly not with the personnel matchups they enjoyed. But what you can do is let them move the ball meaninglessly between the 30s all night, and then confuse Leavitt and disguise pressure and coverages inside of field goal range. It is an impatient team and an impatient coach; mistakes are bound to occur — Alabama counted on that and used every single one of LSU’s tendencies against them.
DeBoer would never say that aloud; it’s much too close to bragging for his taste, as well as tipping his hand. But Alabama won the game on the field because it won the mental game: Yards don’t score points. Crossing the endzone does.
We literally wrote about that very thing Monday: Turns out you can learn a lot from a 6th century Byzantium Roman General.
A pair of ‘Bammers made the National Semifinalists for some very prestigious awards: Maxwell, for Keelon, and the Bednarik, for Metz (yes, I am a voter for both, and yes I voted for both).
And, finally, your moment of levity.
We’ll be back later today with more Meltdown for you, and we’ll have the Vandy Analytics Preview for you tomorrow, as well as Giving Away Money. For now, have a great day and take care.
Roll Tide
I sent you my article yesterday….lemme know if you got it.
I actually commented on it thinking it was posted already haha. Good stuff, Bantz.
I have several submissions to review today. Don’t worry, I’m gonna get to it.
Well, if ya stop boxin’ yer clown to Hobbit porn, ya just might get a good day’s work in, buddyyyyyyyyyyy.
I thought this was a free country?
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH WOW what a terrible fucking article duuuuuuuuuuuuuuude! Comparing the offensive execution to not getting mauled at the dog park? Fuck were you thinking?!? And the part where you included the story about successfully stealing a box of condoms in 8th grade and then gifting them to the teacher all “secret Santa” style? …actually, that was an Alpha move. #Respek.
Okay, now I’ll go and find and actually read the article IF Erkevnz has taken some time off from midget porn and posted the fockin fockerrrrrr.
If you’d taken the time to actually read the article, you’d have seen it was actually about midget porn.
auto recs for midget porn, for the both of ya
Bridget the Midget can get it tho
…and wishing a fine Veterans’ Day, in honor of those who’ve served.
You’re so impatient. It’s on the front page. 😂
I was personally affronted that you didn’t get it up there at 12:01AM, SIR.
I was there when we stormed the beaches of Granada, SIR.
I think that this healthy Alabama team will absolutely wreck Auburn this year. However, I will always respect the non-zero chance that Auburn will Auburn their way to an Auburning, even in Tuscaloosa. Rivalry games are already weird and unpredictable, and the Iron Bowl even more so. So while I’m 99% confident, I’ll never be 100%. I voted for “A little. They’re going to play the game of their lives.” but what I really wanted to vote for is “A little, but Auburn is putrid.”
They have their moments, and they certainly do have some talent on defense.
I was sitting in the stands in September 2015 and saw that black swan game against Ole Miss with my own eyes, where we had like five turnovers in the first 20 minutes. Weird shit can and does happen.
So I respect the “non-zero chance” that we can lose this game
@rbrerik will probably show up saying statistically the favored team wins this game. Which is true. However, I am always worried about that slim chance.
Lord knows, I need a repeat of the 2012 game which… except for 2008 and 2012, we haven’t wasted those rat-fuck sons of bitches on “easy” mode.
2011’s 42-14 (reminder: both of those were NOTs for them), 2020’s 42-13, and 2022’s 49-27 would be acceptable outcomes for me.
Any win over that team, and leaving healthy, I will gladly take.
I’m on the Heisman committee next year, and I was a Heisman voter in 2021. I voted for Will Anderson. So yes, I am a homer, but I’m a smart homer.
@@
Steven Godfrey was talking on his podcast earlier that the playoff is accelerating coach firings. Missing the 24 or just taking an early exit is going to get a lot of coaches canned
Yep. That’s what the article addresses. And I think you’re on something too with the second part of your statement, people are overlooking that.
If you come up short in the playoffs, like a fluke first round exit and you are someone like Tennessee or Michigan, you’re gonna be on the hot seat for a firing.
For instance, after the way Alabama closed the season last year, Deboer had to beat Oklahoma. And if Alabama is a T-4 Seed this year, there’s going to be absolutely no forgiveness if the tide do not advance to the semifinals
And I dislike that part. This is still a high ceiling/low floor team. The difference between #3 and #4-10 is essentially nil at that point. Being ranked high enough to earn a 1st round bye is overachieving for this team regardless of what happens in the playoff
But if that happens it greatly increases our odds of playing in ATL, which I understand you’d prefer to avoid. All it takes at that point is a 10rc loss.
I think the only hope we have of avoiding ATL is 10rc winning. They would have the tiebreaker even if we remainded ranked higher.
We would lose a 2-way tie to Tejas as it would break on record vs common opponents. We’d also lose a 3-way tie with Tejas + UK on the same metric (both hinge on Tejas having beaten 10rc).
A 3-way tie with both ut’s would break on SEC SOS, which means we would probably “win” it.
https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb
In other words, there’s a good chance we aren’t making it to ATL unless a bunch of things “fall our way”. I am totally okay with getting a first-round bye and missing the SECCG. Getting the team fully healthy is paramount in succeeding in the post-season.
I was worried about this last week. The way we yellah’d our pantaloons last year? No thanks.
British humor is elite
It’s either droll or gonzo. No inbetween.
Dude, if you’re a voter for the Maxwell and Bednarick, then literally ANY asshole should be. I mean, I count myself among assholes who should have a fucking vote on this. Hear me asshole?
Sir, I am that asshole