Not all empty carries are empty
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In modern college football, box scores lie to us every single week. Stat sheets measure yards gained, passing efficiency, and third-down conversions. What they fail to capture, however, is the psychological setup — the subtle game of strategic chess played across consecutive snaps.
Take a pivotal goal-line sequence from Alabama’s 31-13 win at LSU. In the second quarter, on first down inside the red zone, the Crimson Tide lined up in a heavy, congested formation and ran the ball straight into the teeth of the Tigers’ defensive front.
The result? A wall of defenders, a pile of bodies, and a box score entry that read: Gain of 0 yards.
To the untrained eye or the impatient fan in the stands, it looked like a wasted play — a stubborn insistence on a call that wasn’t working.
Then came the very next snap.
Alabama lined up in a very similar heavy look. The defense, fully conditioned by the previous play, bit hard on the interior run. Linebackers surged forward into the B-gap. The safeties triggered downhill, completely selling out to stop the inside dive. Except the ball wasn’t inside. Alabama faked the interior plunge, and Keelon Russell flipped a smooth toss out to Ryan Coleman-Williams. With the entire defense collapsed toward the center of the field, Coleman-Williams walked into the end zone untouched for six points.
Without that “failed” zero-yard run on first down, that second-down touchdown very likely does not happen.
The Illusion of the Empty Carry
Football coaches often talk about “setting up” plays, but the goal-line sequence perfectly illustrates why the run game remains one of the most important misdirection tools in the sport.
When an offensive line charges forward in a heavy formation, it triggers a primal defensive reaction. Defensive coordinators preach gap discipline and goal-line integrity. Goal-line defenders are drilled to react to what they see, and a heavy formation gets the reaction they have practiced.
By taking the hit on play one for zero yards, Alabama did two crucial things:
- They validated the defense’s prep: The LSU defense saw the heavy look, triggered, made the stop, and felt confident in their goal-line defense.
- They created the conflict: On the second snap, the defense reacted to what it had just seen. The fake pulled the front seven inside and left open space on the perimeter.
A run for no gain is not a dead play if it conditions the defense for the next snap. It is an investment: you spend one down to set up a touchdown on the next. The investment only pays when the defense believes the run is real.
The Ryan Grubb Problem: Why the Run Has to Stay Real
That sequence only works when the defense respects the run.
In Alabama’s two losses, the offense under coordinator Ryan Grubb scored 17 points against Georgia and 10 at Tennessee.
The season-long run numbers look fine. As of late October, Alabama was averaging about 4.63 yards per carry, up from roughly 3.4 last year. But that average leans on big games against Florida State, East Carolina and Kentucky, and the ground game has faded since. At Tennessee, Alabama gained 54 rushing yards out of 201 total, scored 10 points, converted 2 of 13 third downs, and allowed 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
Critics have pinned the blame on Grubb, and some are calling for his job.
An offensive line that gave up that many negative plays deserves part of it. But the line doesn’t explain everything. It also exposes the difference between calling plays and calling a game. Grubb is a very good play caller. Whether he is a good game caller is the question Alabama’s national title hopes rest on.
Is it enough to take what the defense gives you, or do you sometimes have to impose your will and force the defense to react to you? Grubb’s supporters say his offense does what the defense allows. His critics say a championship offense has to dictate to the defense, not respond to it. A one-dimensional offense can survive against weaker defenses. It won’t against the physical, disciplined defenses Alabama would face in the College Football Playoff in December and January.
Alabama has already lost to Georgia, 20-17. If the run isn’t a threat against defenses like that, the fake won’t work either.
When the run stops being a threat:
- Pass rushers pin their ears back: Opposing defensive ends no longer have to read mesh points or respect counter sweeps. They can explode upfield on every single snap, placing an intolerable burden on Alabama’s tackle play.
- Linebackers drop into coverage windows: Without the threat of an interior dive, middle linebackers can gain extra depth, clogging the intermediate passing lanes Alabama’s offense relies on.
- Play-action completely loses its teeth: You cannot fake a handoff if the defense knows you haven’t run the ball in two quarters. The magic of the Ryan Coleman-Williams touchdown disappears the moment the opponent stops believing the run is real.
The Championship Requirement
To win a National Championship, Alabama doesn’t need to average five yards per carry on every single touch. Every national champion from 2001 through 2023 averaged at least 4.3 yards per carry, per Saturday Down South’s tally, and Alabama was at about 4.63 in late October. What it needs is to stay committed to pounding the ball—even when it means taking a few zero-yard gains on the chin.
Alabama has to force opposing linebackers to play run-first, step downhill, and respect the interior power game. If Ryan Grubb lets panic or impatience dictate his play-calling against elite opponents, Alabama’s offense will become predictably passing-heavy, turning their national title chase into an uphill battle.
The road to a national championship isn’t paved exclusively with highlight-reel passes. Sometimes, it starts with the willingness to run into a brick wall for no gain — setting the trap so that playmakers like Ryan Coleman-Williams can walk into history completely untouched.
Roll Tide
I think what you’re complaining about is play sequencing, which is calling one play to set up another, and the order in which you do it
It’s a complaint I’ve had about Grubby as well, but I’m not sure this pitch sweep to Ryan necessarily makes your case. It’s at the goal line, just about every play in your arsenal is going to be a short yardage run.
Fair. But I maintain that the chances of that outside sweep succeeding are far less if the defence doesn’t think we have any intention of running it inside. We also did something similar at the end of the 2nd quarter where we ran into the teeth of the defence for no gain. However, that led to the Josh Ford TD where the defence HAD to respect Bama’s intention to be willing to run it inside.
I think a lot of it has to do with tendencies in general. Against Tennessee it was painfully obvious we were going to throw to the TE so much so the defender called the play before the ball was even snapped. But you are correct, the defense has to believe you are going run up the gut for any sort of trickeration to work (a la the play you mentioned).
The problem with Grubby is that every DC out there knows that if his offence is unable to run the ball in the early stages then he’s going to abandon it. So they load up the box in the early stages of a game at which point two things happen – we run the ball for minimal gain and he abandons the run as not working OR he “takes what the defence is giving him” and abandons the run.
The LSU game was a good departure from that tendency and even though Bama didn’t rush for a gazillian yards, they were still committed to it…which is all you kinda need. Up for debate which Grubb shows up over the rest of the season…the Tn or the LSU version and THAT is what I’m worried about.
Ultimately, you have to have a balanced offense to succeed. What baffles me is passing later in games where running the clock makes the most sense. I’d have to go back but I believe that is how we ended the LSU game – passing when running the ball would have killed the clock quicker.
You really DON’T have to have a balanced offense to win a Natty, not now that the pendulum has swung again favoring defenses.
You need a damn good defense, an elite QB (or a god-tier running game or god-tier passing efficiency), and the ability to get opponents off the field on 3rd down.
Alabama ticks every box this year. Just like Georgia does. Just like OSU did. Just like Indiana did. Just like Michigan did.
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Maybe balanced isn’t the correct word. But you still need to be able to run / pass when the time calls for it. A 1-dimensional offense, even paired with an amazing defense, will more than likely fail to make it to the natty.
Sure, there can always be that one team that does the “impossible”. However, I don’t see that happening with the parity we are seeing in today’s game.
The final (pre-kneeldown) play was a run (TB17 for 10 yards and a 1st down), as was the play immediately before (TB17 for no gain). The play before that was the muffed punt, and the three plays prior were all TB17 runs (3, -1, and 5 yards respectively).
So the final five meaningful plays were all runs (avg 3.4 ypc).
Entirely unrelated to the article, and perhaps it’s just me, but the latest article on the homepage seems to be stuck on the week 8 meltdown (I click specifically on the football link in the banner to find the actual latest).
Clear your Cache on your browser. It eliminates a 99% of the problems. The memory just gets too close.
this isnt correct. defenders aren’t coached to react like this. Each individual defender is coached to read a key. The Mike, for example, is coached to meet the fullback if he comes downhill. It doesn’t matter if the offense hasnt called a single Iso Lead in 5 years. If he reads run he stuffs the FB and then finds the ball.
The end around works on the 5yd line because the DC has called a run oriented defensive call because we showed 12 personnel and the situation tells him that an inside run is very likely. There is no margin for error that close to the goal line. The situation, not the number of times we have called Duo, is what dictates the call.
The LSU Mike actually reads it and signals to the backside edge defender to scrape over (although I think he was worried about zone keep by the QB).
That same end-around doesnt work nearly as well on the 40 even if we run inside zone 50 times a game because the situation doesnt warrant the entire defense pinching in to stop an inside run. Even great running teams struggle to pass on 3rd and long because the defense is in a call that mostly ignores running as a threat because of the down and distance.
The RPO is the perfect example of this. Teams that barely ever run the ball gash defenses with RPOs because every key the defense reads tells them its a run play. Now its become less effective over the years as DCs have adjusted how linebackers read and react to
This notion of run-run-run-play action pass/reverse is an outdated concept. Defenses are called based on situation, personnel, and field position as the priority not playcalling tendencies.
The play in question might be a read/give from looking at it. Russell rides the mesh before pulling it and handing it off to RCW. He may have been reading the edge defender to see if he collapsed or stayed square to the LOS. You notice that linebacker takes a step down and inside before KR pulls it out of the mesh
Or more succinctly — “Goal-line defenders are drilled to react to what they see, and a heavy formation gets the reaction they have practiced.” – Thank you for confirming what I was saying.
no. you said that running unsuccessfully on a previous series influences the defenders reaction on a subsequent play. It does not.
We definitely should use heavy personnel and condensed formations to both run and pass the ball because it puts defenders in conflict in the passing game and creates more gaps and better blocking matchups in the run game.. And we do certainly more than last year.
If you want to see a play sequence look at the TE screen on a drive 1 and the bluff screen to scissors concept we hit on the CD Morgan touchdown. That play likely still works because LSUs corner and nickel didnt hand off and Meadows did a lovely job rubbing the coverage off CD Morgan but the screen disrupted their eyes and leverage a bit. Its still likely a touchdown but maybe not a wide ass open one
If you think a game is nothing more than every play in isolation where the defence reacts to JUST what’s in front of it rather than what has transpired then Ryan Coleman-Williams doesn’t walk into the endzone untouched and Peyton Manning doesn’t have 18 rushing TDs. What you do on previous plays and throughout a game absolutely influences how a defence plays subsequent snaps.
Stop me if you’ve heard this — The safeties started creeping closer and closer to the LOS due to the successful run game and got burnt over the top”. If every snap was played in isolation then the safeties would stay where they were told to instead of cheating. Its common sense mate.
Please….have the last word knowing that I disagree completely and comprehensively with you on this topic.
I that logic held true then the Alabama running backs would have an amazing ypc average because of the safeties hanging back to defend all the passing we do.
“This notion of run-run-run-play action pass/reverse is an outdated concept.” — once again, you construct a strawman where none exists. No one is saying that you run run run run run play action. What we’re talking about is “Play Sequencing” and game planning for tendencies is absolutely a thing. There’s a reason why analysts watch hours of tape to figure out “tendencies.”
I’m also going to give someone else some air to get a word in edgewise otherwise it’s just going to be you and me going round and round. You disagree with me; I disagree with you on this topic. I think we’ve comprehensively established that.
He is much more enjoyable when Ignored, a function that is sadly not available on this platform.
“tendencies” influence the defense called in a particular situation not how the defenders react.
The LSU defense would have reacted the same to TE delay to Ford and the end around to RCW the same regardless if they had been called on our very first goal line sequence. The defense has to hammer the interior because its not that difficult for the offense to simply tush-push their way into the end zone.
Please….have the last word knowing that I disagree completely and comprehensively with you on this topic.
As I said, I’d love to hear from others because I think you and I have beaten this topic to death between the both of us. Happy to talk about something else….like South African apples.
I’m assuming they grow them at higher altitudes or near the coast. Apples need chill hours to ripen. My grandfather tried growing them in Alabama and the winters here simply didn’t get cold enough to ripen them adequately most years. They were a special combination of hard, sour, and bitter all in one.
Mostly in the Western Cape. Some on the highveld but not much.
I think people forget that despite football being the ultimate team sport, it’s also the ultimate isolating one — every player on every play has a key: a very specific read and a very specific action once they’ve made the read.
you are aware of what others may be doing on a given play (whether a guard needs to slide to help the playside tackle or the CB needs to drop deeper to help the safety, for instance), but defenses have 11 players each looking at something different.
And to make sure that everyone is reading their proper key, the FS will “call out” to his DBs, and the Mike will do so for the Front Seven.
They don’t look at plays in general strategic terms, rather tactical ones.
If y’all produce a cool Nick Morgan t-shirt for sale through your site or otherwise, I will buy twenty of ’em. I trust your creative talents to keep it austere and mostly crimson, like his.