Why DeBoer will move to 3-0 against Kirby in the regular season ledger, and why a double-digit win is more likely than a nailbiter
Alabama. Georgia. Kirby. DeBoer. No. 2 v. No. 6 with SEC (and arguably) national supremacy on the line. The Tide looking for revenge after its fiasco in Atlanta. Georgia looking for its first real opponent of the season. Both teams have looked every bit the part of a national title team, but each has a nagging “wait and see” or “but” sitting in the back of fans’ minds…and in the case of Alabama, much public doubt. If that doesn’t get your blood pumping, then I simply cannot help you.
Our previews are ordinarily a breakdown of the offense and defense, highlight key players or strategies, show you some advanced stats, and so forth. But, FFS, it’s Georgia, we know what they are, who they are, and what to expect. So, instead, we’re going to make the case today that Alabama is 100% going to beat the Bulldogs tomorrow and send the puppies back home with a swat on the nose from a rolled-up Crimson White. You know how we love the data around here, and in this game more than others you need to heed those numbers. The math doesn’t lie, nor does the bottom line, and the statistics will make the case for us.
Alabama is simply better than this Georgia team. Alabama has played against far better teams than Georgia has. Alabama has played better against their competition than Georgia has. And, despite being 1-2 in talent composite indices, Alabama has something the DWAGS cannot contend with: The 2028 Overall No. 1 NFL draft pick and eventual Heisman winner under center.
Because tomorrow Keelon Russell becomes a Heisman favorite, if not the Heisman favorite. It was a nice run, Jeremiah.
You could go back and forth and analyze and compare this game in a myriad number of ways. But, we value your time and are only going to focus on the data points that suggest (strongly) Alabama wins this game by two scores. (All stats via FEI, FPI, SP+, StatsMuse, CFB Data, Sharp, and a several smaller aggregators. Charts and tables via Dimers, StatsMuse, NumberFire, and ESPN).
Ready? Let’s #GumpSoHard
The Offense. Specifically, the passing game.
Georgia hasn’t seen anything like this at all in 2026…and they haven’t since 2020. We know how that turned out for them.
“‘Bama and Georgia, Georgia and ‘Bama Look at the points! Look at the efficiency rating! Ermagerd!” In almost every preview of this game, you’ve heard the same thing from everyone who can make a trip to CFBstats: The Bulldogs and Tide are the best offenses in the country.
But, there is offense, and then there is offense…and against whom. Those raw numbers simply don’t do justice to how dynamic the Tide’s offense is, and particularly its ability to stress defenses at all three levels. Because while the raw stats suggest UGA and UA both score a ton, and complete a high percentage of passes, and make tons of explosive plays, when you look a little closer it’s not neck-and-neck.
When you break down these two against teams with winning records, here’s what you get:
And when you look only to the SEC, it grows really stark. And bear in mind, UGA’s stats include games against Vandy and Arkansas.
So, yes, Georgia runs the ball better. And then they pray like hell they can stay ahead of the sticks and not make Gunner throw downfield. That’s the extent of their offensive advantage. Because, if he has to throw 20+ yards, he’s 4/14 this year…without a single attempt to the left side of the field, and just 11% completions on the right side:
And for the Tide? Over 2 1/2 yards more per completion over half a season, and nearly four whole yards against SEC teams is genuinely unbelievable. You would expect to see that difference emerge in a homecoming game, not against the No. 2 ranked team in the country. So where are the Bulldogs in this success rate? Middle of the pack, about what you would expect out of a team that has to play for long drives. Where is the Tide? Up there with the national title contenders.
And how the teams are throwing the balls matter too. I was talking to some of the fellas yesterday, and noted that Georgia has a triple option mindset playing out of a pro-set formation. How so? Well, they don’t like to use the middle of the field, and they take only so many deep shots as are needed to keep defenses honest and not key to the running game every down with eight-man fronts.
Look at where Gunner’s passes are going vs. where Russell’s are, and just how accurate Keelon has been:
Georgia is throwing far shorter passes than expected on standard downs; they’re having good fortune gaining yards after the catch. Alabama (and IU) are flinging it all over the field, and down and distance have little relevancy either. They can beat you in air throws and with YAC. In just SEC games, here’s what Russell has done: 19 completions of 20+ yards for 659 yards; 14 total explosive passing plays and seven TDs — that leads the country in every single one of those state. Hell, against USCe alone, he went 6/7 for 244 yards and two TDs…just on air throws of 20+ yards.
Gunner, meanwhile…well. He’s relying on those screens to work, and zero-step throws at the LOS, being called a “YAC Merchant.” Georgia leads the nation in yards after the throw. and Gunner is second in reliance on YAC. When half of of your tosses are behind behind the line of scrimmage you would have to pick up YAC, or the offense would be buried behind the chains.
The lines of scrimmage, and an underrated Tide defense
Here is the average Georgia analysis going into the game: Alabama is soft, they’re weak in the trenches, they can’t run. Yadda yadda yadda.
While the DWAG media and fans, and even national folks, are parroting this line, it seems like Kirby is the only one who truly gets the size of the task those Bulldogs are facing:
This isn’t the banged up team of last December missing 13 starters, or a Kaplovic offensive line, or a running back corps with a scatback pretending he’s Earl Campbell. This is the ’26 Tide, and they are fierce.
Through five games, Alabama is the best team in the country in overall line play.
Like, it’s not even close. Among that stat is leading the country in pancakes on offense, and leading the nation in QB pressures from the defensive line. They are 5th in QB pressures from the front seven without blitzing. That ain’t James Smith and Qua this year: it’s London Simmons and Devan Thompkins and X and Metz and Woodoson and Red and half a dozen more.
But it’s not just the line, or even the front seven. It’s the entire defense, and the entire defensive body of work vs. some damn good offenses the Tide has faced (Four of the five are in the Top 25).
Look at the summa of their first five games, where Alabama has faced the 10th ranked offensive schedule: teams on ‘Bama’s calendar can light up the scoreboard.
- Despite that, the Tide still only give up three points more per game than the Bulldogs…who have faced the 93rd toughest offensive schedule.
- And, when adjusted for opponent, Alabama’s defense is 7th…Georgia’s is 10th.
- Havoc rate for ‘Bama? They’re an outstanding 6th in the country. Georgia? 9th.
- Turnovers? Alabama is 7th nationally, at +11 (and recall, that includes the shitshow to start the Kentucky game and the miserable second quarter against Mississippi State — outside of those two quarters, Alabama has lost just three turnovers in 18 of its other three quarters of play). UGA is just +5 despite playing the 93rd worst offense on average.
- Sacks and sacks per game? Again, Alabama by a sizeable margin over the Dawgs.
- 3rd Down? Again, the Crimson Tide defense.
- QBR allowed? Alabama.
Conclusion and prediction.
Don’t sell this team short, and do not, for one second, think it’s the DeBoer squads of 2024 and 2025. It closer to the Saban defenses of 2015-2017, with the 2018-2020 offenses in tow. In short: You have to have a raft of five-stars, you have to play an almost perfect game to beat them, and you have to play all four quarters. And even then, it still might not be enough.
There are a few teams in the country with the firepower and elite defense to keep up with that formula. Based on their results, Ohio State and Miami appears to be capable of sustaining that sort of track meet while also moving the ball against ‘Bama. And while Alabama will get Georgia’s best effort for four quarters, from one of the nation’s most talented rosters, the advanced numbers don’t think they have such firepower. In fact, the data suggest it’s far closer to two scores than the -1.5 Vegas has pinned it: -8.94 is the composite.
That’s not to say Georgia won’t score, that UGA won’t bust open explosive plays, that Gunner won’t take off and scamper for 10-15 yards, that the Bulldogs won’t put yards and points on the board. To the contrary; they will. It is still an elite offense, stocked to the rim with blue chipper. But there’s elite, and then there’s what Alabama is doing.
And the data never lie. Alabama could not only win this game, but, by the standards of this series, even lay an ass whooping on the Dawgs.
Hope for the best, and Roll Tide
Our Call:
Alabama 37
Georgia 28
How to Watch:
- Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
- Kickoff Time: 7:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. God’s Right and Proper Central Time)
- Location: Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa
After reading this, how are you feeling about the game?
- Better: Alabama can not only win, but might even do so with breathing room to spare. (43%, 59 Votes)
- Same: I always thought the Tide were going to kick their ass. (21%, 28 Votes)
- Same: I always thought it was going to be a nail biter. (19%, 26 Votes)
- Worse: This is the kind of hubris the Football Gods love to punish (17%, 23 Votes)
- I'm a Georgia fan, give me some Croakies and a Scooby snack. ARP ARP (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 136
#GumpSoHard y’all.
This headline makes me nervous. I hope you’re right, but lord that’s a bold take
I’m just trusting the math, my man.
and some of my eyeballs. Lol.
I’ll be sitting in the (hopefully diminishing) rain tomorrow to do my part
Looks like the rain’s gonna finish blowing out by noon or one. Could be a little drizzle in the next two or three hours, but Alabama’s firepower should be a go and you shouldn’t get too wet.
have fun at the game. Roll Tide.
Glad the game will actually have some nice weather compared to what they were initially thinking.
I’m sure Grubb will be all in his bag – which is both exciting and terrifying at the same time.
He called literally a perfect game last week. Nothing cute, nothing clever, rode the hot hand, went with the flow of the game. If we get that guy tomorrow, we’re gonna drop 45 points on their ass.
I was about to disagree and… Okay, he did call a great game. I just hope he understands any of UGA’s weaknesses the way he did Miss State’s.
I can’t believe I typed that sentence either, but it happened
Every OC is 50% genius and 50% retard. If Grubb can keep that ratio at 60-40 today then I give us a decent chance of beating the Dawgs.
The exact number I predicted over on RBR – including a pick-6 from the defense. Bama 45-24.
Very plausible.
SEE?!? I’m not the only one!
Dammit. I don’t know if there’s hoodoo big enough to counter this.
Just sit back, and enjoy the ride
UGA is #2 and tOSU was #1, but if we win tomorrow we’ll have the best win in the country, especially if it’s not particularly close or in doubt. And given how much better we’ve looked against the rest of our competition than the teams above us, I don’t see how we wouldn’t be #1 come Sunday afternoon. It doesn’t really matter until the committee starts their rankings, but I still want to get back to being acknowledged properly.
Spoiler, it won’t be. We’ll get a lot of first place votes if it happens. But I bet we would move no higher than third or fourth. They would still have Texas and Notre Dame in Miami ahead of us, maybe even Ohio State
we’re not even into Bama fatigue territory anymore. There is outright animus towards Crimson Tide stuff at the moment.
I simply cannot understand ND being in the top 5, fuck them leprechauns
It’s kind of the opposite of Bama fatigue in their case.
This website was founded with Notre Dame slander as its first few posts.
I got a tattoo to celebrate the 2012 BCS title game. THAT is how much I hate the Irish.
My hunch is we end up in the #2 spot if we win (especially convincingly), but I REALLY hope you’re right – because the chip on this team’s shoulder if we only move up to 4 (let alone 5) would be enormous. Yummy, YUMMY rat poison! I would NOT want to be UT in that scenario.
Well heck, I wouldn’t want to be UT in ANY scenario, but you get the point…
I cannot remember where or from whom, but (hold onto y’butts) according to the BCS formula, we are technically #1 by that metric after slapping Miss State with our engorged penises. And yes, the tactical mastery with which we employed said phalluses actually plays into that ranking.
We’re No. 1 in 80% of the computer polls, as well as the old BCS composite.
This article is giving off massive fat hog energy, let’s slap the puppies with said fat hog.
Rat Poison..But yo, Roll Tide!
Good thing I’m not suiting up 😂
Erik, how do you feel about the spread now that you have really dived into this data. Your originally said not with 10’ pole but now I’m feeling a bit bullish.
I personally threw money on it. I think Alabama has it in them to go scorched earth.
Something weird just occurred to me. For the first time in the KDB era, in one of these huge games, I just can’t see Alabama losing.
It was the same feeling that we used to get under Nick Saban. But this is the first time I’ve had it with this staff.
If they win tomorrow, then I think we can say Bama is back.
Erk. You’re scaring me. I want to believe. If they’re truly “back,” the amount of lessons they will have learned in the last 2 years is insane.
You have to learn to trust again.
But I’ve had some treacherous women say that to me before. LOL.
I’m not the only one scarred by recent results.
Ugh, women… I may be earning a late night tire-flattening visit from a few soon. Seriously fellas, it all depends on which personality of theirs you’re dealing with. BE. FOREWARNED.
Bama’s gotta win a few big ones before I start getting that feeling. TBH …and to be fair to KDB, that feeling had started diminishing in the latter Saban years.
Y’all…tengwall is crushing on the tightr ends again.
SAS with a legit crashout for Bama doubters. Actually giggled here.
I honestly wonder before they go on air, do they pick sides of a debate or do they just flip a coin? It reminds me of Vince McMahon referring to pro wrestling as “sports entertainment.” That’s the same thing we got going in most of sports media. It ain’t about the substance it’s about how many eyeballs you can get. Just ask the likes of Finebaum and all the other clickbait posters. I hope we win by 30.
“Why the Crimson Tide will definitely, 100% beat the Bulldogs”
Bruh, now I’m afeared. The last time Erkevnz was this confident about the outcome of something, he put ALL of his shekels down on Mr. T in the final match in Rocky III.
Ask Mickey if Clubber was soft?
Why tempt the Gods??