Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Been a very nice year against The Man, and here it’s even been a bit better: 6–0 for the rivalry week picks and the OU-Alabama game.
So, the weekly post-mortem will basically be pulling one of those out of the hat. Let’s go with last week’s Tide-Sooners contest.
Told Ya’:
Alabama +1.5: At the end of the day though, data sets suggest probabilities, not analyses or predictions or post-mortems. Oklahoma can turn the ball over, and Alabama can force them. Can they hang on to the ball though? Probabilities suggest that they can…no matter how gunshy fans may be at the moment. It’s a very close game here, but, given all the data, the current spread suggests that the wrong team is favored. Alabama -.386
God, that will never get old.
Alright, let us endeavor to carry that success into the bowl week that wraps up the 2025 regular season — don’t worry, CFP quarters will come next week. This is just a Christmas gimme.
You know the drill. Every week we pick half a dozen games for you: a game to absolutely stay away from, a game we like, a game we love, an underdog to consider, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet
Northwestern -10.5 v. Central Michigan
This shouldn’t be close, not really. A mid MAC team vs. a slightly above average Big 10 squad. But that Big 10 squad still has Big 10 talent. Yet, it is, because of those damn turnovers. The Wildcats just can’t run away from them. Meanwhile, the Chippewas don’t kill themselves with mistakes and they can ding you up if you want to give them the game.
Simply too close to call, even if it shouldn’t be. Northwestern -10.44
One We Like
UVA +4 Mizzou:
Did you see Duke spam that dive play against the Cavs over and over and over? Looking like a drunk Madden couch tournament, TBH. Do I have some bad news for the Hoos. Lawdamercy, the Tigers have to be licking their chops. Losing Beau Pribula was only addition by subtraction, not that MU will need to throw much. And, with Chip Lindsey in tow, a seven-deep backfield, and an absolutely filthy front seven, the ACC learns why it’s the ACC here. Missouri is going to run the ball like it’s 1975. In terms of expected performance to point spread, this is the week’s second-largest discrepant spread. UVA will get some points in the passing game, as MU’s secondary is still a bit soft. But it’s not as soft as the Virginia front four.
Tigers take it. -9.94
One We Love
UConn -10 v Army:
The Knights are the most deceptive .500 team in the country. Five of their six losses are by single digits, 19 points in total (including a pair of one-loss games). The only team that really thumped them was ECU, and the Huskies don’t have that kind of defense. In fact, checking in at 116th in adjusted rushing D and 107th opponent-adjusted (109th per-play), is bad news against one of the most disciplined teams in the country that will grind you down 50+ times on the ground.
UConn’s passing game is superb. And, IIRC, Skyler Bell was my Biletnikoff winner. He did not take that home — he’ll just have to settle for finalist and consensus All-American. But, we still don’t know if he’s even going to play in the Fenway Bowl. He’s been remarkably petulant and on-again/off-again. I’m leaning towards he’s going to keep himself safe for the draft. He’s already 23 — an injury now would be brutal. Ordinarily one player doesn’t swing a pick. But with him it’s already close. Without him, UConn could lose.
So, Army it is. Army +6.70
Underdog With Bite
Houston -2.5 v. LSU:
I respect what Houston has done as much as the next man, but this is a clown number. The Coogs won’t be able to move the ball, and now Lane has had three weeks to cook too, with all that far superior coonass talent. Not only is the wrong team favored, it’s an underdog by two scores. Rarely seen a dataset play out this lopsided. And this could as well be the Mortal Lock too.
Lane gives the adoring crowd what they want. LSU -8.86
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention
There are none. It’s the bowl season. Just about everyone is going to play within 14 points (on paper). Sorry.
Mortal Lock
UTSA -5.5 v FIU:
The Panthers were a surprise this year, with their new and improved offense. The Runners were too, but for a different reason, as early on they dropped some shootouts, then dropped some defensive battles. But the second half of the year they corrected course and the data reflect that. Dallas may as well be a home game, and UTSA just doesn’t lose in the Lone Star State very often…especially when teams turn it over as much as FIU does.
The talent differential also matters between the AAC / CUSA: UTSA -7.16
And, hey, if this one doesn’t tickle your fancy, Lane Kiffin being a field goal underdog to Houston more than fits here as well! What he does to G5 teams is frankly criminal at times.
That’s it for now. We’ll be back next week with some CFP action for you, and start easing into some hoops thereafter.
Have a safe and very Merry Christmas. Take care.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
