Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Last week went about as swimmingly as you could hope for: A perfect 5–0 on the week, as well as a rightful hedge on the Egg Bowl and the FSU/Florida game — you just never knew what those teams were going to do. So, we get to pick from literally any one of them for this week’s autopsy. But let’s go with the underdog selection:
Told Ya’
…The Wildcats have the better defense. They have the far better offense. They’ll have the single best player on the field. They don’t turn it over and have one of the nation’s best ballhawking defenses (+11!). The only real impediment is that they’re on the road. So, remind me again why the Sun Devils are favored?…
Final: Arizona 23 Arizona State 7 — with the Wildcats winning the turnover battle by +2 and outgaining the Sun Devils by 160 yards on the road.
That crowing means, of course, that I’ll probably go winless now. The Gods abhor hubris.
It’s championship week, though, and games tighten up significantly. And, since there are far fewer of them, we’ll just go with a few this week: An underdog, a pick we like, a larger spread the data think will hit, and one to absolutely steer clear of.
Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Not With A Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet
North Texas -2.5 @ Tulane:
The Green Wave have the de facto homefield advantage. But the Eagles have the firepower (and actually a defense comparable to the Green Wave, though one that is better at forcing TOs). The Mean Green are more careful with the ball, and have the much better offense — though Tulane has the superior talent and has actually tested their mettle against one playoff team (Ole Miss) and potentially another (Duke). And the Wave smashed the Devils too. Still, if UNT doesn’t give it away, they can win this.
There’s also simply too much uncertainty as to which team will best respond to the loss of their coach, as Sumrall is moving on to Florida, and Morris is heading to Oklahoma State.
And, on balance, this one is too close to call and within the margin of error (UNT -2.02).
One We Like
Virginia -3 v Duke:
Grab your popcorn. This is going to probably be a fun shootout. But the ‘Hoos have the marginal advantage defensively and the better offense, even in what is basically a Duke home game in Charlotte. The Devils have been the more resilient, but also the more up-and-down squad. Meanwhile the Cavs have been far more consistent, but that’s also a bit concerning with a defense that can give it up in oodles at times. For a squad with a lot of firepower like the ‘Hoos, expect them to instead try and overpower the Dookies. The Blue Devils greatest weakness is right between the tackles. And expect Duke to try and test the Virginia secondary, with intermittent success too.
Overall, though, this is the week’s most comfortable cover, per the data anyway. UVA -6.90
Underdog With Bite
Ohio State -5.5 v Indiana:
The data surprised me here, because I thought that IU would get the edge — they’ve certainly seemed to be the more complete team, even when they’re in death matches with physical squads like Iowa and Penn State. But, the Hoosiers did not…at least in raw terms. However, when you adjust for opponent, and exclude the OOC soupcans for both, the Hoosiers have had the tougher road in conference and the spread narrows significantly. This game features great LBs and WRs, and two QBs that haven’t really been tested by quality secondaries. Who can run the ball will go a long way in determining the winner here. People are really sleeping on the Indiana running game, as well as the depth of that wide receiving corps. It’s not just Serratt you’ve got to watch out for. And that says nothing of how very good IU is at forcing turnovers.
The numbers like the Buckeyes to win, but the Hoosiers to cover (and would anyone be stunned if IU won outright?) IU +2.38
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention
Well, it’s not really ginormous, but it is the largest spread of the week. And we go to the Big 12 to find it.
BYU +13 v Texas Tech:
Technically a neutral site game, but let’s be serious — it’s Arlington, so a default TTU home game. There is no bigger fan of the Raiders than the CFP Committee, who can make a lot of their problems go away with BYU getting a thorough asskicking by Tech. The numbers think it’s a shade over two touchdowns, but probably not a rout. The Raiders just have too much talent, and are the only Big 12 team that looks the part of a natty contender. While BYU thrives off defense, and they aim for just enough offense, the Red Raiders have one of the nation’s best front sevens, perhaps its best pass rusher, and they live to light it up. That’s just too much to contend with for an offensively limited Cougars team on the road.
Texas Tech -15.14
That’s it for Championship Week. I do select the rest of the title games over at (Almost) Giving Away Money, and we will begin picking up basketball after the Holiday break and the conclusion of bowl games.
But for this week, at least, go forth and prosper on the gridiron.
