South Carolina-Alabama Preview and Prediction: The combined firepower of both teams guarantees some fireworks

But probably not as many as you’d guess.

For a third time, LaNorris Sellers and Shane Beamer get their shot at the Crimson Tide. Both teams are coming off of defensive implosions. For the Gamecocks, theirs came in the second half as Kamario Taylor picked this team apart like a chicken wing. For the Tide, it began early and as Alabama gained a comfortable lead, reappeared late in the Tide’s 14-point win over FSU. Both secondaries are dejected, but whereas this was always expected out of the questionable USC DBs, Alabama allegedly had the best secondary in the nation. And, while Keelon Russell looked better with every passing series, LaNorris Sellers looked worse (ignore that late stat-padding).

Both squads are going to be looking for redemption, and though ‘Bama is the team with the undefeated record, they enter this one every bit as angry as if they had lost last week. Firepower on display, to be sure. But who has the advantage in that kind of game?

Tale of the Tape

On paper, at least according to the stats, this one looks to be a fairly competitive game, with Connelly’s (wretched) SP+ not putting much daylight at all between the two teams. It’s the SEC; margins are very thin between winning 9 games and sadly missing the Birmingham Bowl…again. He sees this one shaping up to be a 30-21 ‘Tide win.

To break down Alabama’s rating by units, SP+ gives the Crimson Tide a 34.5 rating on offense (No. 18 nationally, up two spots from last week) and a 14.7 rating on defense, which is No. 10 nationally and up seven spots from before the win over Florida State. In special teams, Alabama is given a minus-0.3 rating, which ranks 104th nationally.

South Carolina is No. 26 in the SP+ team rankings with an overall rating of 13, one spot below Louisville and one spot ahead of Washington. The metrics give the Gamecocks a 31.7 rating on offense that’s No. 34 nationally, a 19.3 rating on defense that’s No. 25 nationally, and a 0.5 rating in special teams (No. 13).

All I have to say is that anyone who has watched Luhlv match Ole Miss blow-for-blow then watched this USC team shit away a 16-0 lead at home en route to a 31-point Mississippi State run would question their metrics.

And my own algorithms used for the (wildly profitable) Giving Away Money, has them pegged as follows:

Alabama: 6th

• Offense: Alabama is 2nd in opponent adjusted off. efficiency, 3rd in OppAdj. per-drive efficiency, 9th in OppAdj. per-play efficiency; 18th on the ground and 4th passing game efficiency.
• Defense: ‘Bama still comes in at 4th in Opp.Adj. Defense (Alabama has played a lot of passing teams); 9th vs. the run, 20th vs. the pass (thanks, Dijon and Keon!), 5th in drive efficiency defense, 3rd in negative drive efficiency (3 and outs / TOs / failed FDs, missed kicks etc), and 11th in Opp. Adj. negative play efficiency.

South Carolina: 29th

• Offense: USC is 37th in Opp.Adj. offensive efficiency, 19th in Opp.Adj. drive efficiency; 10th in per play Opp.Adj. efficiency (speaks to a team that creates a lot of chunk plays relative to the opposition, as does Alabama); 49th in negative drive efficiency (punts, missed kicks, TOs etc).
• Defense: 19th Opp.Adj. defense (look at what happened against the first team they played, Miss. State); 30th in negative drive efficiency; 11th in Opp. Adj. negative play efficiency; 27th vs the pass and 11th vs. the run

If these numbers are good enough to be up almost $4k on the year, we’re going to trust and use these data instead of SP+.

ESPN predicts the final score of Alabama football vs. South Carolina

Is another one-score game in store for Alabama and Kalen DeBoer when the Tide face South Carolina in Week 4? Here's what ESPN's metrics think.

Roll Tide Wire

South Carolina’s Offense

It is is this side of the ball that concerns you the most if you’re a ‘Bama fan, and with some good reason — most of us are still scarred by the near-disastrous homecoming game of 2024, where the Tide couldn’t shake its Vandy turnover bugaboos, held a two-score lead with five minutes to go, and somehow had to bat down a hail mary to even win. I’ve rarely been angrier at a victory.

Well, much of that same cast returns to Tuscaloosa again this season, led by the fast, powerful, big-armed LaNorris Sellers and his binky on the outside, nightmare matchup — the speedy Nyck Harbor. If that’s not enough to worry about, the Gamecocks are tied atop the SEC with Tennessee at 7 YPC on the ground, led by a deep backfield, including Sellers and RB Matt Fuller — both average 7+ per tote and have combined for six scores. There’s not any one guy who has the star power, but USC rolls out four backs, and will hit you with 40 attempts per. Even in their lone loss, they were still hitting 4YPC, and ran the ball 40 times. Pack a lunch; this team doesn’t abandon the ground game. Ever.

In the Tale of the Tape, we indicated that USC thrives off of explosive plays, and indeed they are 4th in the SEC in generating them — 51 on the season, with 30 of those being 20-30 yard gainers. This team can and will gash you. Even in their loss to CLANGA, the Gamecocks generated 16 plays over 10+ yards. You can blame that L on many things, offensive output wasn’t one of them. And all that firepower is led by Sellers, who has almost 200 yards rushing on the season, and tosses for almost 240 a contest to go with his half dozen touchdowns. His decision-making is still suspect for a three-year upperclassman, and he’s throwing a lot of hit or miss balls, and has a trio of picks on the season against one of the nation’s worst early season schedules. He is only hitting 63% of his attempts despite playing the likes of Towson and Kent State.

But he’s comfortable with the YOLO throws. Because, while everyone knows and fears Nyck Harbor, he is a limited threat owing to being so stiff in the hips. He simply cannot run routes and hasn’t learned after three years. He leans on speed and size and getting down the field on those go routes. The real danger on the outside is Donovan Murph, who is USC’s leading receiver, has three touchdown catches, and averages an absurd 27 YPC. That’s…inhuman. For an Alabama defense that was scorched for 15 explosive plays last week, almost all in the passing game, it has to be seen as either an opportunity for redemption…or another occasion to get cooked for three hours on national television.

South Carolina’s Defense

As usual, the Gamecocks’ strength — and has been seemingly forever — is right along the front. The Carolinas/outlying Atlanta area produce a helluva lot of talent on the defensive line, and South Carolina always draws more than their fare share. It is a very hard team to run the ball on, in particular if you try and dominate the trenches early. You’re not going to make much hay there. It is also a fair pass rushing bunch, 14th in havoc rate; they can beat their man one-on-one with speed and power, both inside and outside.

They are 24th in the nation in sacks produced, at almost 3 per game (similar to ‘Bama’s output). But the foul pudding is really revealed in their pedestrian production creating negative plays at the LOS. Against the soup cans, USCe was averaging 11 TFL per contest. Against Miss. State, the ‘Cocks could only produce 5 all game against a decent-but-not-overwhelming ‘State rushing attack. And they were miserable once Kamario Taylor broke contain. Because again — and has seemingly always been the case — the real hole in this unit is at linebacker. USC is a great place for linemen and corners (though perhaps not this year for the latter). But if you want a game-changer at the second level, this has never been where to look. The ‘Cocks gave up almost double the YPC vs. the Bulldogs as they did their other opponents. If you can beat your man in the trenches, there is good yardage to be had on the ground versus this bunch.

That is why you see the advanced stats reflect a team that seems elite on a per-play basis, but is just average at creating negative drives and is only slightly above average on a per-drive basis: If you win your one-on-ones early, you can put together drives.

The greater vulnerability is the USC secondary, which is pedestrian by SEC standards. They’ve not given up many yards, but again, look at the schedule. When they finally played a quality QB, they were roasted for over 71% allowed passes, and five scores. Not good, Bob. Not good at all. And with their odd mix of underachieving upperclassmen and green freshmen, it’s unlikely they found answers between last week and this through the air.

Bottom Line, Prediction, and How to Watch

Expect some fireworks. There is a good deal of talent at the wideout spot for both teams. Both also have agile, large, and very fast quarterbacks who can and will scorch you with their legs just as gleefully as they’ll chuck it. Both suddenly also have defenses that look to be vulnerable to YOLO throws downfield. Both have deep running games that wear you down late, and they both try to grind out yards through all four quarters.

But Alabama does have a few things in its favor. The first is better decision making. While Sellers leans on the deep throw, he doesn’t take or make nearly enough of the routine plays to move chains as consistently as Alabama does. As a result, he has one of the SEC’s worst completion percentages, and yards per throw. Meanwhile, that has been Russell’s greatest improvement from the first week to this one: taking the yards that are there; when you do, eventually the explosive plays come. Last week we also saw Alabama add a new weapon in its arsenal: the downfield throw. With the Tide already having nightmarish speed, the return of AK Dear and Noah Rogers only adds to the woes in the secondary. An iffy Carolina linebacking corps could also struggle over the middle. It would be a very good occasion this week to scheme a tight-end heavy game plan.

Offensively, expect South Carolina to dance with what brung ’em. That is to say Kendal Briles will use tempo selectively, run on any down and for all four quarters, no matter the score or scenario, and take plenty of downfield shots. But the USC right side of the line is very vulnerable to the rush, and that’s where Thompkins and Pierre figure to be true terrors. With an ILB corps of Metz and Woodson, as well as Bray and Fitpatrick coming on any given down, it’s no longer a sure bet where ‘Bama’s pressure is going to come from. I’d look for USC to get some cheap points on continued Alabama miscommunication in the defensive backfield. You can tell where this team is learning new schemes, and in the case of some players, entirely new coverage techniques. But the good news for a group that got smoked last week is that USC’s explosiveness is mostly downfield; Sabb in particular gets another chance to redeem himself. And the large-framed Lee should be much better off the line of scrimmage against a straight-line player like Harbor rather than a complete package like Duce Robinson.

Will we see a shootout like last week? It’s possible — USC’s offense had plenty of chances against the Bulldogs last week, and still only lost by a touchdown, scoring 34 in the alleged upset. The nature of Wommack’s defense, even at its best, is to take chances. That’s going to get them beat a few times. But an explosion like we saw last week? Unlikely. There’s not a Kromah in the backfield, nor is there a Robinson on the outside. And, given Norris’ poorer decision-making, the Tide defense should be able to get plenty of stops, force a few turnovers, and keep Carolina off-script. They will need to be mindful of Sellers’ scrambling when the play breaks down. Wommack has done a good job of bottling up the scripted QB runs, but getting off-schedule is when he’s most dangerous. And, with all due respect to their stats, there’s simply no one in the backfield that scares you except for the quarterback. Finally, with a weaker back seven for USC, there are just too many weapons underneath, too many short and intermediate targets, for Russell to not have a great day at the office with plenty of 7-11 yard throws and looks to the backs and tight ends.

So, fireworks yes. As many as you might guess? No.

Our Call:
Alabama 41 USCe 21

Alabama faces South Carolina at 6:00 p.m. God’s Right and Proper Central Time Zone, and is the ESPN primetime clash. It is also available on YT TV, Sling, and the ESPN App.

Hope for the best, and Roll Tide