Welcome back strength of schedule, hello Big 10 howling

Turns out gaming the system only works so long

Rejoice, for this is the day that we Gump. Surprisingly, we unearthed a lot of stuff to go over this morning. So, let’s hit it.

Hunter DeSilva over at Bama Central, has a great “Three Matchups” article up, and I was particularly intrigued by his diving into ‘Bama’s special teams coverage vs. the talented USC return game:

Alabama Special Teams Coverage vs. Vicari Swain

Alabama’s done fairly well in kick and punt coverage since DeBoer’s arrival, as Wisconsin’s Vinny Anthony II’s 95-yard return in 2025 is the only opposing player to score a touchdown on special teams.

But the Crimson Tide is about to face Vicari Swain, who has turned into an extremely dangerous punt returner. Through three games and six returns, he’s up to 152 yards and two touchdowns. His yardage mark ranks sixth in the country, his 25.3 yards per return is seventh and he’s one of just four players to find the end zone twice.

“Every week, I think from here on out, you’re going to have someone who can do those types of things,” DeBoer said during Wednesday’s teleconference. “But [Swain] is showing it already here early in the season that he can not just get them a few yards — he can take it all the way.

Absolutely a must-read this morning.

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Lookie, lookie, lookie what we have here: The CFP committee has decided to add a new strength of schedule metric to its evaluation criteria. Technically speaking, strength of schedule (everyone you played) and strength of record (how you did against them) is already factored into the CFP’s fuzzy calculations. But this one does something a bit different, and is aimed more at those conferences who try to insulate their league’s standard-bearers from the stiffest competition. This one will assess who you played within your conference relative to everyone else in your conference, a metric which would have surely doomed the old SEC East and Big 10 West.

While you can’t say that the favoritism has poured in for OSU this year, it certainly has for likes of Texas Tech (who will not face another ranked team this year, after a controversial home “win” against No. 22 Houston), and Miami (who likewise do not face another ranked conference team, though I suspect VT will be by the time they meet). And the Big 10 has been notably bad about in most seasons. (again, with the exception of Penn State, all of the name brands play at least two other contenders this season. It’s not the SEC gauntlet, but they can’t help they don’t have many great teams). And in the SEC, until this season, we’ve seen Georgia and the Texas schools get the kid glove treatment for years — in the case of Georgia, it has bafflingly been a decade).

So, the leagues that spent years carefully ensconcing their tentpole teams in a cozy schedule are going to have to play it a bit more fairly in the future, lest this new metric backfire against them.

And people are whining that this was in response to the SEC’s complaints about unequal schedules in conference play. True that may be, but it doesn’t make the complaint any less valid: Alabama plays five straight ranked teams beginning next week. Texas plays seven ranked teams in its final nine weeks. You simply cannot seriously think Texas Tech, which even avoids BYU and Utah in the regular season, has the same claim to a spot as a team that survived that gauntlet bloodied-but-alive.

NEW: The College Football Playoff committee will now consider a strength-of-conference metric in its selection process, @CFBHeather reports.

The new metric will help determine the strength of each conference based on the schedule strength of each team in its league.… pic.twitter.com/0pvOD27l4h

— On3 (@On3) September 24, 2026

But all these additional computer metrics got me thinking of what we could do instead: We could have the coaches vote on the Top 25, and it would be worth a third of the final tally. And we could have the sports journalists who watch more games do the same, with their vote also worth a third. Then we could combine all of the computer polls and rankings, and make that the final third. Then, we could pair the top two teams for that national title. Pretty easy, huh? A lot more transparent and fair of a system it seems, right?

But, if you’re interested in the most transparent, and meticulously-planned notion for a college football playoff, we’ve already spent years working on it and detailed last year how it would work. I don’t often toot my own horn, but this is some of the best work I’ve ever done. I’m biased, but I think these are worth a read:

1. Part one is here — Building a better playoff:
2. And Part two is here — A comparison of five playoff models

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Yesterday, we wrote about the House being the biggest obstacle to passing the PCSA, and that is proving to not only be accurate but increasingly fractious, as dozens of different lawmakers from both parties suddenly want a targeted piece of antitrust legislation to serve a hundred masters — and some are even trying to bring back the SCORE act, which was so deficient that it never even made it out of committee.

This is where you would ordinarily say that Speaker needs to get everyone onside, but if we’ve seen anything out of Mike Johnson over two years, it’s that he not only can’t whip votes, he’s terrified of his own caucus. I’m growing increasingly pessimistic the longer this thing just sits there, a ripe target for mischief.

Good look at the politics the PCSA will face in the House. https://t.co/dv2s86f65f pic.twitter.com/klSUpBC3bq

— Mit Winter (@WinterSportsLaw) September 24, 2026

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The law is struggling to keep up with the Kalshi/Polymarket “prediction markets,” only now getting around to finally launching enforcement actions, even as giants like Kalshi are asking for permission to drive people further into debt, with a proposal to the feds that would let users borrow against their positions “on margin,” to use the plaform, i.e., gamble.

We’re finding the same pattern everywhere too. The law, and in particular the intentionally deliberate and slow legislative process, simply is not equipped to handle the pace of change we’re seeing.

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The season is still relatively young, but we’ve been screaming for a few weeks now that Devan Thompkins may wind up being the steal of the portal. SI doesn’t quite go that far, but they have him ranked as the highest non-quarterback in terms of impactfulness on the season. He’s not going to get the pub of someone like Darian Mensah, but he’s every bit the weapon on the other side of the ball.

The Alabama defense has been downright dominant at times this year, like the second half against Kentucky in Week 2, and Thompkins is a huge reason why. Thompkins, at 300 pounds, has the strength to rush from the interior, as well as the speed and athleticism to pressure from the edge. A disruptive presence, the Crimson Tide lineman has racked up three tackles for loss and as many sacks this season.

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It’s a huge week in the SEC, as the conference pecking order is about to be established. There are a half-dozen meaningful games, and ranked teams are in every one of them — with ranked vs. ranked appearing in five of those contest: LSU hosting A&M, Ole Miss @ Florida, Mizzou @ Miss. State, Texas @ Tennessee, OU @ Georgia, and of course USCe @ Alabama.

And the Alabama game is going to give us all an ulcer, if the past two meetings are any indication. Look at this graphic:

Full story is at this link, but here’s a snippet:

Two years ago, Bama went up 14-0, gave up a 19-0 run and needed two scores and a two-point stop to survive. Last year, the Tide led 14-6, gave up a 16-0 run and needed two Germie Bernard TDs and a costly LaNorris Sellers fumble to win. Keelon Russell and the Tide have started the last couple of games slowly and would welcome a 14-0 start, but they’re landing knockout punches well before the final minutes regardless.

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The Thursday evening availability report went out last night late, and mercifully there were no new ‘Bammers showing up on the lists of the injured. With today being walkthroughs, no pads and no contact, I would certainly hope this story doesn’t change by 6:00 tomorrow. And there were no Christmas miracles either — the Tide will be absent Hill and Zulu and Cayden Jones: three outside linebackers against a team with a scrambling quarterback. Pass the Pepto already.

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In yesterday’s preview, we suggested that no matter how far down the chips may get, that South Carolina is going to keep punching. They may get blown out, but they don’t quit. And indeed, that seems to be the message coming out of Columbia this week — Alabama plays “really, really hard,” so USC will need to match that effort. And OC Kendal Briles who has rejuvenated that ‘Cocks offense, also spoke on the the challenges that the Tide’s movement presents, and DC Clayton White touched on the comparisons between Russell and Kamario Taylor:

On comparing/contrasting Keelon Russell to Kamario Taylor: “I would say a little bit, but Taylor, the system is different. I think that’s the major difference in both of those guys. But, Russell had a play against Florida State where he broke out for 60 yards and was running away from Florida State. So that tells you right now his athleticism, explosion, and just his ability to break open a play at any time. But they both have that kind of ability. But their systems are so different, so it’s hard to compare both of those guys. But Taylor, right now, is obviously playing at a different level. But I think Russell is also starting to hit his stride, as well.”

Good stuff in here.

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I’m normally not a Jay Busbee fan, but he levies some harsh-but-fair criticism of the Tide’s slow starts. How long can Alabama keep playing with fire, and taking entire quarters off before it bites them in the ass? ‘Bama has fallen down by multiple scores to the likes of Kentucky and FSU. Yes, the ‘Noles have serious firepower, and yes, the Wildcats are turning out to be a lot better than most guessed, but the Tide haven’t even reached Hell Month: October. And they still have the pesky, talented Gamecocks to survive this weekend first.

“What we just can’t have is what we had on Saturday [against FSU] where both sides, really the whole team, we come out and don’t make the plays that are out there,” DeBoer said this week. “If you make a mistake at this level, the ball’s gonna find you. Mistakes are going to be costly. Early on, we certainly did that. It gave them hope. It gave them life. That’s exactly what we wanted to avoid, especially in this game.”

There’s a lot to like about the Alabama offense; against Florida State, Russell threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns, and ran for 56 yards and a fourth touchdown. Wide receiver Lotzeir Brooks topped 100 yards receiving, and the Tide run game — which totaled 247 yards, Alabama’s best since the Saban days — looks to have life again after a dormant 2025. 

But it doesn’t matter how much effort you put in when you show up late and the opposition’s already been at it for an entire half. If Alabama wants to elbow its way back into the national conversation — and beating at least three of those four SEC foes would be a good way to do that — the time for slow starts is over. It’s amazing what can happen when you get to work on time.

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It took a while, but our boy Balloons, got a coda to his FSU data up, and man, was it an explosive day at Bryant Denny. If you love offense and big plays, the Noles and Tide put on a show…abetted by some ghastly defense.

We looked at several charts in the graphing article from Alabama vs. FSU last weekend, but we didn’t dig into the box score.

And there are some tidbits there — ‘Bama with the first downs, 4th-down success, and sacks — but the really outstanding numbers are the Explosiveness index.

You might recall that our explosiveness vs. Kentucky was low: it was a #RTDB kind of day, with just one long touchdown rush. Well it was especially low for both teams, with ‘Bama putting up a subdued 1.10 vs. Kentucky with a ghastly 0.96.

Which just adds to the whiplash of it all when you consider that the next weekend, ‘Bama put up a high 1.44 Explosiveness, but gave up 1.87 (!) to Florida State. The latter is one of the highest marks I’ve seen in my graphin’ days. Yikes.

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And, finally, your moment of levity. Or a moment to deeply mourn that we have the government and politicians we deserve. Potato/Potahatoe. Tears are appropriate either way, I believe.

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That’s it for now. We’ll be back later with the Week 4 Viewing Guide, and I suspect it’s going to be JAM-PACKED WITH INFORMATION THE EXPERTS CAN NOT DO WITHOUT ($1 if you know where that’s from). We’ll see you later. Until then, thanks for dropping by and take care.

Roll Tide