Giving Away Money 2026: Week 6 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.

Week 5: 6-1
2026: 31-9
Mortal Lock: 5-2

Another great week here at GAM: 6-1. Again. Over the last three weeks, we’re 8-1, 6-1 and 6-1. For the season, we’re hitting an absurd 77.5%. Mortal Lock has been a bit wonky (“just” 73%), but as we’ve discussed before, that’s selection bias and relies on a gut instinct more than anything of which game to throw out there from the dozens I do every week. But, since no one plays for one game, it tends to level out over the course of a season, despite a speed bump here or there; I’m not overly stressing it with 10 weeks left to go. We’re still doing really damn well, among the best in the nation.

And because I have been so accurate for over a decade — and since I also show my homework, good and bad, I won’t apologize for flogging (Almost) Giving Away Money, where we pick every game, every week, for college football and basketball.

Now, let’s check our homework from last week, and move on to Week 6.

Week 5 Postmortem

Told ya’ :

Underdog With Bite: Boston College +22 @ SMU: …QBs are averaging 30 points lower in QBR when facing BC. Equally important: SMU is in the bottom third nationally in rushing yards allowed and YPC. The Eagles are a ground and pound team. They can string together drives, exploit mistakes, keep the clock rolling, and make this a game. BC

Verdict: Boston College did in fact make a game of it, controlling the line of scrimmage, running the danged ball, and frustrating Kevin Jennings. SMU were better in the end, but the Eagles were never losing that game by 3+ touchdowns, 25-16 SMU.

What the?:

Well, we only missed on one game last week, and it was Toledo. Even worse, it was a Mortal Lock game. Womp. Womp. And weirdly, you can watch the game, read the box score, and still not understand how Toledo only won by two scores. About 22% of all the variability in a college football game cannot be accurately captured by data; we just witnessed why.

How bad is Ball State? Based on opponent-adjusted stats, out of 138 FBS teams BSU is 138th in passing defense, 138th in rushing defense, 138th in total defense, 136th in creating negative plays, 134th in forcing negative drives (punts, turnovers, downs), and 137th in offense. Its best stat? Rushing — 126th.Toledo is no worse than 39th in any of those So, Toledo it is. By a whole bunch too, most probably.

Verdict: Baffling. Toledo dominated the ground, won the turnover battle, won on 3rd down, and still gave up 24 points to the worst team in America, and only won by two scores, 39-24 3rd down, and still gave up 24 points to the worst team in America, and only won by two scores, 39-24.

Here’s how we do things around here: Every week, I pick half a dozen games:

A game to stay well away from — knowing what not to bet on is money saved
A game that we like
A game that we love
An underdog game that the data likes to cover
A game with a large point spread that the data still suggests is feasible.
And a game that is a a mortal lock.

Now, on to Week Six, all odds via Vegas Insider.

Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:

Alabama -1.5 v Georgia

This year’s Game of the Century of the Week is not on here because we’re scared of making a bold pronouncement, it’s here because the data indicated this one is simply too close to the final spread to fall outside of the 5% margin of error within the 80% confidence interval. In fact, it was this week’s closest composite algorithm result: Alabama -1.72. Of the five models used to provide a final composite, and thus be a “good” game, two holistic models had ‘Bama winning, another had the ‘Dawgs. In the defenisve-tilted model, it was UGA by just under a field goal, and in the final one that leans more into offensive data, it was Alabama…and not even particularly close: Tide by just over nine points. As many points as these two tend to unexpectedly produce, and with quarterbacks as accurate as Stockton and Russell, I suspect we see the offense carry the day on Saturday. It’s lame but true; this game really is just too close to call by the numbers. There are better wagers to be had. But, I’ll tell you that personally I threw some cash on the Tide, going with my hunch — but I’m a terrible hunch gambler, and I almost never countermand the data: bad games I lay off, good games I take.

There are better games out there this week. Just enjoy Bama/UGA without the added stress of a razor-thin point spread

A Few We like:

It’s always nice to enter the weekend having already won a few bucks, as we did last night with Troy’s thumping of Southern Miss. And, had you heeded the data in Monday’s edition of Giving Away Money, you’re a little more flush with cash today as well.

But, overall, there aren’t a whole lot games to love in Week Six, nor are there any Mortal Locks — it’s a weird week — so we’re going to just give you several that we like instead and a few underdogs. Fair trade?

Miami (OH) -2.5 @ UMass

Last week EMU worked over the Minutemen with little more than some efficient passing. The Redhawks are even more efficient in the air. Despite that 4-1 record, UMass still has an awful secondary, an iffy offense, and Miami still has the best defense in the conference — certainly the best one that UMass will have seen to date. Despite being a MAC game, this is shaping up to be Mortal Lock-sort of game…if Miami can avoid turnovers. That is the hope if you’re a Minuteman diehard: UMass leads the nation in turnover margin. Still, Miami it is.

Bowling Green -7 v Sac State:

The Hornets are dead last in the country in turnover margin, a grizzly -11 through 5 games. Woof. Meanwhile BGSU has been pretty good at forcing mistakes, plus they’re playing an early home game in one of those brutal West Cost-EDT games that kicks off at 8:00 a.m. body time for Sac State. The cover rate in Big 10 games is sub-25%% for the West/East early kicks: It almost never happens. It was always expected to be a tough year for Sacramento, but I don’t think even they anticipated the size of the challenge; they’re trying to eat the elephant one bite at a time, and they didn’t so much as bring a spork. Even an elephant as puny as the struggling Falcons looks insurmountable from way down there. Bowling Green.

Minnesota -2.5 @ Purdue:

Fleck ain’t the greatest road favorite — he’s so much better at home, and as an away ‘dog. But the Gophers are good enough to get this one…if they don’t get the big head after winning the Jug last week beating Michigan. For that matter, coming off of their first Big 10 win in almost four seasons, you could say the same of Purdue. But when the dust settles, it still comes down to winning the game on the field, and the Gophers superior line play, stingy defense, and balanced offense are too much at the end of the day for a Purdue team that is still a very bad one. Minnesota

Underdogs With Bite

It looks to be another decent week for the ‘dogs. In fact, the algorithms liked a lot of underdogs this week.

Florida -14.5 v South Carolina:

To beat the Gamecocks, you have to throttle them through the air. That’s not what Gata wants to do. And as soft as UF’s defense looked last week, and how deep USC’s running game is and how often they go to that well, USC can make a game of this…so long as they don’t put the game on Sellers’ arm. Jadan Baugh was held to just 16 yards rushing last week, and turned Florida into a team that had to throw. If you’re Cocky, you just copy and paste that blueprint. They may not win, but the numbers like South Carolina to keep it under two touchdowns. USCe.

Penn State -1.5 v USC:

Talk about an ass-off. USC is going to score a billion points on this ghastly PSU front. As for their secondary, we don’t even know how good they actually are — Northwestern never stopped running to test them, and that was the first hal-decent team the Lions played. The larger problem comes on the other side. Can Troy’s woeful defense stop even this feeble Penn State offense, or should I say, a Big 12 team cosplaying as Penn State players? Surprisingly, numbers suggest that they can. Yup. Not only do the data suggest USC will cover, but that the wrong team is favored: Southern Cal with the cover and straight up win.

Ginormous Spread Worth Your While

There was sadly no game that really met the criteria for “Mortal Lock” territory, and instead we’re going to go with two ginormous point spread games. Sorry about that; data are what the data are.

Ball State +35.5 at Northwestern:

Lawdy, I do not want to bet on Northwestern as a 5+ TD favorite over anyone. I had to check, but this appears to be the largest that the Wildcats have been favored over an FBS team in four years…and with good reason. The defense has been salty as hell, and offensively, they’ve been a creative juggernaut on the ground: ask Penn State who got Wing T’ed to death by Chip Kelly last week en route to surrendering an ungdodly 417 yards on the ground. jNW has the country’s 6th ranked rushing offense while Ball State brings in its 135th ranked rushing D; when adjusted for opponent, their rushing efficiency is next to last in all of FBS. With Northwestern’s miserly defense, playing at home in the new Ryan Field and with all that momentum, despite the huge number, you have to ride with the data. If they’re not hungover and actually show up, the Wildcats should roll. Something like 44-7 seems plausible, right?

Charlotte -28 @ North Texas:

Four touchdowns in a conference game counts as “ginormous,” right? Charlotte has the nation’s 4th worst defense, and its 3rd worst scoring defense. They surrender the most fifth most explosive pass plays of any team in the country. The Mean Green are T-3rd nationally, with an insane 58 explosive plays, they have the country’s 4th best offense and its 3rd best scoring offense. UNT averages 5 YPC, while Charlotte surrenders over 6 YPC. The Niners have also allowed a dozen passing TDs and 15 scores on the ground. North Texas is 5th nationally in passing, having thrown for 12 TDs, while rushing for another 16. UNCC is also 132nd in the country generating points, a gross 17 per game. Even against UNT’s generous defense, what do you think is going to happen. Name your score, most likely. North Texas it is, but man, do I hate that defense.

Loading ...

Alright, that’s a fork in Week 6. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just $7.84 a month, still cheaper than Fairlife Milk .