Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Week 5: 6-1
2026: 31-9
Mortal Lock: 5–2
Another great week here at GAM: 6-1. Again. Over the last three weeks, we’re 8-1, 6-1 and 6-1. For the season, we’re hitting an absurd 77.5%. Mortal Lock has been a bit wonky, but as we’ve discussed before, that’s selection bias and relies on a gut instinct more than anything. No one plays for one game, and it tends to level out over the course of a season, despite a speed bump here or there, so I’m not overly stressing it with 10 weeks left to go. We’re still doing really damn well, among the best in the nation.
And because have been so accurate for over a decade, I won’t apologize for flogging (Almost) Giving Away Money, where we pick every game, every week, for college football and basketball.
Now, let’s check our homework from last week, and move on to Week 5.
Week 5 Postmortem
Told ya’ :
Underdog With Bite: Boston College +22 @ SMU: …QBs are averaging 30 points lower in QBR when facing BC. Equally important: SMU is in the bottom third nationally in rushing yards allowed and YPC. The Eagles are a ground and pound team. They can string together drives, exploit mistakes, keep the clock rolling, and make this a game. BC
Verdict: Boston College did in fact make a game of it, controlling the line of scrimmage, running the danged ball, and frustrating Kevin Jennings. SMU were better in the end, but the Eagles were never losing that game by 3+ touchdowns, 25-16 SMU.
What the?:
Well, we only missed on one game last week, and it was Toledo. Even worse, it was a Mortal Lock game. Womp. Womp. And weirdly, you can watch the game, read the box score, and still not understand how Toledo only won by two scores. About 22% of all the variability in a college football game cannot be accurately captured by data; we just witnessed why.
How bad is Ball State? Based on opponent-adjusted stats, out of 138 FBS teams BSU is 138th in passing defense, 138th in rushing defense, 138th in total defense, 136th in creating negative plays, 134th in forcing negative drives (punts, turnovers, downs), and 137th in offense. Its best stat? Rushing — 126th.Toledo is no worse than 39th in any of those So, Toledo it is. By a whole bunch too, most probably.
Verdict: Baffling. Toledo dominated the ground, won the turnover battle, won on 3rd down, and still gave up 24 points to the worst team in America, and only won by two scores, 39-24.
This is a quickie for the weeknight games, where there are 11 contests between tomorrow night and Saturday morning. So, we won’t go through the whole big production. I’m going to tell you one to steer clear of, an underdog to keep an eye on and drop another few the data think are decent bets.
We will still have our regularly-scheduled Giving Away Money on Wednesday for you…this is lagniappe, an extra, a sweetener. Like the dope man giving you an occasion freebie: We gotta’ keep you coming back.
Not With A Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:
Florida State +5.5 @ Luhvl:
Yes, the Florida State secondary is suspect as hell. But last weekend, they devoured the UVA passing attack, and simply neutered their powerful running game, turning a would-be shootout into a stinker: 38-7 ‘Noles. So, this team can play defense when they try. The real danger though is their offense. Analytically, FSU is far better than their record. And with the ACC’s best RB/WR combo, it’s buying Ashton Daniels a lot of grace and options, as well affording him plenty of space to skeedaddle. As we saw vs. Wake, that Louisville defensive front is a tire fire. That’s not what you want in a must-win game against a running QB and the ACC’s best running back. Kromah could take over this one…if FSU’s secondary doesn’t show up and let’s UL’s passing game set the Seminoles on fire first.
Analytical tossup and far too close to call. Run away.
Underdog With Bite
This week, there turned out to be seven games that met the margin of error, and thus were deemed “good” games — well, at least good enough to think about risking money. We’ll give you three of them now. (AHEM, you know where you can get the rest. LOL. Always. Be. Closing.)
South Alabama +2 @ Arkansas State:
We have our first WRONG TEAM FAVORED of the year. Not only is the spread too large, the data suggest that wrong team is favored entirely. The Arkansas State defense is going to have a damn hard time bottling up the Jags’ running game. ASU surrenders over 5 yards per carry; USA is 11th in opponent adjusted rushing efficiency, and is 9th in the nation in attempts: They are relentless. And don’t forget, this is an ASU team that has already gone on the road to give Tulane fits, and had Kentucky on the ropes for an entire half. Their defense ain’t great, but it’s still a tad better than Ark. State’s. That, and the road experience are difference-makers. South S/U in the upset. Could be a shoot out too. Gonna’ be a close one probably.
A Few We Like
Troy -10.5 v Southern Miss:
Back to the bad ole’ days for So. Miss. Troy hasn’t done much right this year, but the one thing they do pretty well, RTDB, is the one thing that So Miss has the most problems stopping. They’re next to last in the country in rushing defense. That ain’t gonna’ cut it on the road against a Troy team that both runs with volume and with reasonable efficiency. Sadly for the Eagles, they don’t have the offense to punch back very much either. The numbers like Troy, even though it is a conference game and a rivalry.
San Jose State -6.5 v Wyoming
Last week, San Jose State won on the islands with their comfortable, predictable formula under Ken Niumatalolo: force turnovers, control the game in the air. That’s awful news for Wyoming, which is next to the last in the country in turnover margin, and though overall their passing defense looks pretty good, in the two games against teams dedicated to throwing the ball, the Pokes have allowed seven TD throws, and forced exactly zero interceptions. Even against the run-first Bison, North Dakota State threw for 250, a score, no interceptions, and 65%. You just can’t do that, while also turning the ball over as much as they do, while on the road against a team that turns you over and wants to beat you through the air. Spartans it is.
Alright, that’s it for our Weeknight Quickie.
We’ll be back on Wednesday with our regular GAM. See you then, best of luck, and take care.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Just $7.84 a month, still cheaper than Fairlife Milk — why the odd price? Because those are actual charges from Patreon, Apple, and the card processor. I’m only making five bucks, which criminal.
Bets locked in.
genuinely cannot believe USA is the underdog.
The boxscore clearly shows you who won (Toledo)
But you’re right, the margin feels wrong for it. Nearly double the rushing attempts, at a two-yard per attempt difference? +2 on turnovers?
Yup. And you put the stats from that box score and you get an algorithm composite of -23.41.
So what you’re saying is Arky State is gonna have South in their mouth?
I don’t want anything of Butch Jones near my mouth.