Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Week 8: 6-3
2026: 47-21
Mortal Lock: 8-4
Not the worst week, considering we just stared down a third straight week of bloodbaths — 67%, with Mortal Locks now back to a respectable 75%. Fortunately, the Tide are off this week, so no need to agonize over a ‘Bama spread at least in Week 9.
Now, let’s check our homework from last week, and move on to Week 9.
Week 8 Postmortem
Told ya’ :
App State +11 v JMU: I’m not sure how I feel betting against the 800 pound gorilla, but the defenses are actually pretty similar. In fact, in many ways, the analytical profile of both of these teams are similar. The App. State passing game, and James Madison’s poorer red zone conversions, could keep this one a game. The data still suggest that the Dukes get it done on the road, but far closer to a 8-9 point game, instead of 10-plus.
Appalachian State covers this rivalry game home.
Verdict: App. State no only held their own against the 800-pound gorilla, but even won straight up, almost-certainly knocking James Madison out of the playoffs. Always trust the data, baby.
What the?:
NC State -6.5 @ Stanford…I know, I know. We usually don’t trust Dave Doeren as a road favorite; he’s one of the worst in the ACC easily (about 34% cover rate). But this is a dreadful Stanford defense, with both rushing and passing efficiency defenses in the 100-teens. The Wolfpack are a Top-Third passing team. They can get explosives quickly, and if not, they can easily chew up drives with 10-12 yard control passes. Their front four is also a very bad matchup for the home Treeeees. Just too much talent here for Stanford to compensate for, and it’s only a touchdown to boot.
NC State it is.
Verdict: There’s a reason not to trust Road Dave Doeren. Not only did NC State fail to cover, they lost outright to the worst team in the conference, and it got him fired after two decades in Raleigh. Damn.
Now, on to Week 9 Weeknight quickies.
Here’s how we do things around here: Every week, I pick half a dozen games:
- A game to stay well away from — knowing what not to bet on is money saved
- A game that we like
- A game that we love
- An underdog game that the data likes to cover
- A game with a large point spread that the data still suggests is feasible.
- And a game that is a a mortal lock.
Now, on to Week Eight, all odds via Vegas Insider.
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:
Mississippi State +20 vs Texas
Ordinarily, you’d like the pesky Bulldogs to keep it somewhat close at home against a risk averse Longhorn offense content to grind out drives. And, as Ole Miss showed last week, there are definitely cracks in that secondary. However, that was before it happened: “It” being the loss of star Kamario Taylor for the season. He’s been a bit winged for a few weeks with a toe injury. And after trying (and failing) to play beyond one series last week, he’s decided to just shut it down. His relief was hardly stellar (though most quarterbacks do struggle against the Sooners), and there simply is not the data available to assess this one. On top of that Road Sark is a meme for a reason. The Horns can lose to almost anyone on the road — he is what people accuse Kalen DeBoer of being.
There are better games this week, even in the rough and tumble SEC. Hard pass.
One We like:
Colorado State +6.5 @ Utah State
Someone had to be last, and excepting new FBS member Sacramento State, you found ’em — the worst defense in college football: The Colorado State Rams: 137th in opponent-adjusted efficiency (and notorious for a DC walking off the field in the middle of a game this year). Worse for them, those data carry over to the passing defense: Yup. 137th, vs. the 47th most efficient passing team in the country, and an air-first attack, playing at home, at night. And the Aggies have an adorable new mascot to boot. That’s just too much for the visitors to overcome
Ags get it done.
BONUS:
Boise State -10.5 @ Texas State: See above, but this time on the ground: The country’s No. 2 efficiency rushing offense vs. the 87th worst rushing defense, with the favorite also playing at home, and at night. On the Smurf Turf, with kickoff temps near freezing and raining…hosting a passing team from Central Texas. Tell me there’s not a lot to like about the home Broncos.
One We Love
Ohio State -6.5 @ USC
To beat Ohio State you have to do one thing mainly: Beat them on the lines. This is the Ur-Big Ten team, and have been my entire five decades on this mortal coil. Oh, sure, you can hit them with explosive plays. And you can score. But can you outwork them for sixty minutes, can you outgrind them? Are you willing to be patient, to be disciplined when they’re content to be brutally efficient and bleed you to death with 8-minute drives? UCLA is building that sort of inside-out team. USC and it’s vaginally-oriented air raid offense and notoriously soft-as-baby-shit defense most certainly is not that sort of team. Just ask a supremely mediocre Wisconsin team that Big Tenned the Trojans to death last week in a 24-7 slaughter. The loss of Sayin won’t matter. Quarterbacks are fungible in this offense — efficiency and toughness matter. And that swings only one way.
Buckeyes off the bye. And it could be a laugher.
Bonus: Ole Miss -13 v Auburn: As bad as Pete’s defense looks against the run at time, Auburn will still struggle to move the ball and score on it. Meanwhile, the Barn simply has no answers for competent passing attacks. And the Rebs are very competent in the air. Ole Miss.
Underdog With Bite
Arizona +3.5 @ Texas Tech
Want to talk about a hella’ dangerous game if you’re the Red Raiders: This is it — the Arizona Wildcats. In an offense-minded league, they have the best one. They have the easy QB advantage (by a wide margin). They have a defense that has played every bit as well as the Raiders. They are coming off the bye too. Tech, meanwhile, is still licking their wounds after getting massacred in Cincinnati last week. Their chances at the playoffs are all-but shot as of today unless they run the table. This isn’t the team I’d want to play in a must-win and still a bit hungover with serious deficits under center. Most models even call for the ‘Cats to win straight up.
Arizona covers on the road. An outright win is about an even coin toss per the data too.
BONUS: Northwestern +3.5 @ Oregon: Like Arizona, the numbers favor the chances of an outright road win for the ‘dog at 50-50, and see this no worse than a field goal for the home team. Northwestern
Ginormous Spread Worth Your While
Notre Dame -30 v Navy
Oh, that brave Notre Dame schedule. Yes, yes, we know it’s a historic rivalry. But the last time this rivalry was zesty, my grandfather was getting wounded in the Battle of the Bulge. Unfortunately for the Middies, we’re in 2026, and their secondary is terrible. The Irish have one of the nation’s most efficient passing attacks, and are going to find plenty of space to run free — and plenty of undersized DBs to bully. Meanwhile, that triple option attack isn’t going to get very far against an Irish front seven that devours opposing ground games. Freeman has to gussy up the scoreboard for the committee.
Irish in an absolutely Biblical blowout
Mortal Lock
Georgia -11 v Florida
Do you trust a ground-first offense to consistently attack the Bulldog front seven for sixty minutes, on the road in what is a de facto home game for Georgia in Atlanta? If that fails, do you trust Aaron Philo and that dreck of a wideout corps to match the Bulldogs score for score in the air? Do you trust the Gators’ porous defensive line to stop the mutants that UGA rolls out? How about their even worse defensive backs vs. the SEC’s most efficient passing attack?
If you trust all of those things, then by all means, take the underdog. I’ll take my money and lay it on Jawjah, rivalry or no.
ARP ARP ARP. GO DWAGS!
Alright, that’s a fork in Week 9. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week. Take care.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Just $7.84 a month, still cheaper than Fairlife Milk .
I’m probably wrong on this, but that injury report from Ole Miss makes me nervous as hell they cover 13. They look worse than we didn the last couple weeks and Auburn is reasonably healthy (and obviously well rested after last week).
Auburn and Brown are Sybil. I think Brown will be more like he was in the GA game. Pete’s D is suspect and the O is banged up. Ole Miss wins but doesn’t cover.
Can’t argue with the rest of the picks though.
We never use the injury reports, the data come out way too early for that. I get the printouts early Monday morning. A lot can change.
Obviously, with some critical injuries like quarterback, we don’t even bother (MSU/Texass)
I am skeptical on the Ole Miss game even though I am running with the data.
I just saw the injury list. Yeah, you might wanna hold off. 😂
Well, it’s a little late. By the time that came out I was already invested haha. The fact it is at Ole Miss makes me feel better.