What began as speculation now has a whiff of legitimacy.
Happy TGIF. There was nothing of note out today, so we’re going to do what we did on Monday and have an open thread.
Today’s topic: Kalen DeBoer’s future with the Tide.
This began as speculation last year during the coaching carousel, but now it appears there is an air of legitimacy about the rumor, as it has moved from speculation into something resembling accredited reporting.
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer is allegedly at the top of USC’s list to replace current lolcow Lincoln Riley. and, according to John Talty, it is heavily implied that he would accept it.
To me it makes no sense, but I’ll lay out the case in as good faith manner as I can:
PRO:
- Already well-versed with the West Coast recruiting market.
- Experience living in a major metro area
- Experience in the SEC arguably translates to the other megaconference, the Big Ten
- Money is not an object at USC, either for him or in NIL. You never have to do less with more at Southern Cal.
- For reason or another may think he is not up for the Alabama job (major injuries every year, inherited bad roster situation, brutal schedule every season, fear of administrative/fan impatience and eventually getting fired, etc.), and it is an easier conference at the end of the day.
- Relatedly, he sees a better path to a national title with USC resources and a Big 10 schedule.
- He may just genuinely not like living in Alabama or coaching in the SEC. Sometimes jobs are just a bad fit.
Cons:
- He is already paid top five money, On par with coaches having already won a national title. Coaching salaries in the Big Ten (with two outliers) are generally far less than what you can command in the SEC
- Alabama is College Football’s main character. There is only one other school in the country that can plausibly make the consistent, century-long claim to UA’s success and tradition and national attention, and the Notre Dame job isn’t open. There is no other peak to summit; you have the Alabama job, you are at the literal top of your profession.
- Far more jaded, even downright hostile local press. The University of Alabama controls access with an iron fist. It has created a class of beat reporter that has been cowed into lobbing softballs and levying the harshest criticism. You’re never going to hear hard questions asked at an Alabama press conference. For a small market like Tuscaloosa, Alabama, where UA athletics is the main attraction, loss of access is career death. That is not the case in Los Angeles, where they will beat your ass bloody. Would you rather be put to the question by al.com or Plaschke and the LA Times? I think we all know the answer to that one.
- The schedule isn’t that much easier. This year, the Trojans traveled to Penn State (usually a tough trip), Madison, and go to Bloomington. They also host UCLA and Ohio State. That’s not easier than Alabama’s path this season, and is arguably more difficult.
- Front-running, fickle fanbase. Even winning games (and USC is consistently and 8-9 game winner), the Coliseum is half-empty. There is barely if any home field advantage to playing in LA.
- Far too many program distractions. Would you rather your 85 newly-minted millionaire teenagers be sitting at 10-0, the No. 1 team in the country and live in Tuscaloosa or Los Angeles? Coaches try to control as many aspects of their program as possible. Doing that in LA, with the success they would demand of him, would be an absolute nightmare.
- Travel. And it’s not inconsequential either. This isn’t hopping on the big steel bird for ninety minutes to CoMo — these are cross-continental, 2000+ mile trips, potentially across four time zones. And then you do it three or four times in three months. It sucks, it’s disruptive, and it takes its toll.
- Roster attrition: When Saban left, Alabama lost (or chased away) a total of 51 players from the previous season. Presumably, he would have the benefit of a portal period, unlike Saban’s February departure, but you’re still talking about replacing dozens of players, just to get a decent head count.
- Relatedly: Having to rebuild the roster from a 4-3 man team in an air raid, to a 3-3-5 zone / hybrid defense with a motion-oriented pro spread. He’s been working for three years to get the Bama roster resembling something close to what he’s looking for, and it’s still not there yet. Do you think, in his mid-50s, he’s ready to rebuild all over again?
- He likes living in Alabama. Having lived in major metros and South Dakota, where DeBoer hails from, I can tell you which one is a lot more the speed of Tuscaloosa. The costs of living, taxes, better place to raise a family, etc. are far more similar here than in the second-largest city in the US.
- He is a man of his word and a competitor. Last year, Kalen DeBoer said, “You don’t leave Alabama.” I’m biased, but believe that to be a true statement. But there’s another dimension to it: He just renewed his contract with Alabama on that basis: he intends to see it through. He’s a man of his word and a competitor. He wants to be the best against the best, right?
There are others obviously, for and against. So, that’s what we’re going to open it up with today. What say you and why?
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I don’t want to say Talty is full of shit, but he’s full of shit. Of course, KDB is at the top of most coaching lists. You have to consider him if you’re an AD. To speak authoritatively, then use weasel words to imply KDB would take the gig, is highest order bullshit.
You can tell he came from AL.com.
We’ll have our weekend viewing guide coming up in about an hour or so. And we will be having a Gumpstream open thread tomorrow, BTW
there might be more context I’m missing, but based on the 23 second clip above, I don’t know that Talty is saying that DeBoer would leave. Just that given who the AD is there, you have to expect from due diligence that the phone call will be made.
KDB will politely answer the phone — but not the call.
And that’s what I said. Of course you have to make the call.
Just like if he left, and you’re Greg Byrne, you at least have to call Jimmy Sexton and see if Kirby would be interested in a change of scenery.
You have to be able to say at high-level programs to that you literally went after the best.
How much of what Kirby has done is replicable outside of Athens? Metro Atlanta recruiting is a big piece of the UGA machine. How much of his success there is Kirby and how much is it allegiance to the in state flagship program?
Kirby is 0fer in the 12 team playoff and his offensive skill player evaluation and recruiting has not been that impressive.
All that said, his recruiting and development on the lines has been stellar. Tracy Searles would have to be a non-negotiable part of the deal.
Agree on Searles. And while Atlanta Metro is a huge part of his recruiting, Alabama is a national program. They can and do go everywhere to get talent. Including Georgia.
Mario shutting almost everyone else out of South Florida has been far more detrimental TBH. He’s hoarded all that talent and put up a fence across South Florida.
I kinda feel like Mario should be the 1b up there with Kirby. He kicked the other 2 P4 in state schools ass in recruiting (although Norvell puts about as much effort into HS recruiting as a 6 year old eating brussel sprouts). He is a legit killer at recruiting and developing linemen. He has struggled with QB and in-game coaching just like Kirby.
Its an interesting thing to ponder but I don’t think DeBoer is going to leave for USC. That place has a disinterested fanbase and a lot of grabassery in the C-suite. It isnt clear to me how much power the AD even has there. IIRC they have 1 mega booster who swings between apathetic and Long Beach Bobby Lowder in his level of involvement in the decision making process.
I’m inclined to agree on Mario, but the counter-point is, how much of that recruiting success is down to $$$? He has always struck me as at best a mediocre on field coach (as you noted). We’ve long said he’s always good for 1-2 head-scratching losses per year, both at Oregon and Miami.
So I guess my question is how much of our positive opinion is based on recency bias based on a single run to the title game (aftert he somewhat lucked into the playoff) + looking dominant so far this year against (mostly) the Little Sisters of the Poor + buying his way to flashy HS and portal class rankings? I can easily convince myself that he’s a great coach, but I can just as easily convince myself that it’s mostly an illusion.
All that said, at gut level I’d probably more excited about bringing him to T-Town than I would be about Kirbs. Not that either of them would ever leave their current jobs…
Mario has done it at multiple places. He made a nice turnaround at Oregon pretty quickly. He made FIU decent which in hindsight was a heck of feat.
I’m with you. There isnt a chance in hell of either of them leaving for anything short of the NFL.
He has always been a fantastic recruiter, even before NIL. But he’s a very average field coach.
We never had any issues recruiting ATL under Saban, did we? Did that change even after Kirby took over? I could be wrong, but I wouldn’t think it would be that much harder to recruit ATL to Bama than to UGA, especially if Kirby were the one doing the recruiting.
We definitely lost some ground in ATL when Kirby took over. It really hurt Clemson and Auburn. Dabo and Gus won a lot of battles against Mark Richt. Kirby built a wall and punted their asses to the other side of it
Alabama doesn’t have problems recruiting. Especially now, since these kids grew up with Alabama as the IT program.
Sorry, I need to get back to the main point. But you don’t imply in an authoritative voice of the journalist, that he would “be at the top of the list” unless you have it sourced.
This “trust me, bro” shit is such a weasel, hack stunt.
Erik, I also agree that, from everything I’ve read, seen, and heard, KDB likes being in Tuscaloosa and wants the challenge. He’s not Perkins with an NFL ego, and he’s not a hypocritical crybaby like Curry. He came to the job with his eyes wide open and he believes in what he’s doing.
I tend to agree with you.
FFS, I saw Mama DeBoer buying her own groceries last week at the Publix in Northport. Literal paper list and cart in hand. Of course people smiled at her and said hi and nodded. But they (we) let her get about her shopping. And she was likely relieved.
They strike me as just normal people, trying to live normal lives. Hell, a decade ago he was making like 80K in Sioux Falls. Eight years later, he’s paid $11.14m a year, and is the hottest shit on the market. That HAS to be exhausting.
Do you think that normalcy can happen in Los Angeles?
True story. The only question I ever asked got my media credentials yanked for three years.
Back in 2016 when we had a generational defensive line, Nick Saban brought in Jonathan Taylor from UGA, who was still up for trial on a felony DV charge.
Nick Saban had ranted about people getting second chances, etc. And I said that I am all for redemption, but you have to have reckoning and adjudication first. How can you have redemption without penance? Shouldn’t he have to go through the criminal justice system and have his guilt or innocence and subsequent punishment adjudicated first?
Yank! Erik disappeared from the press pool for three years 😂
And hell, I didn’t even ask it of him. I asked it of the football SID.
By the way, Taylor had been on campus for less than a month before he got arrested again for domestic violence — so much for redemption
Ugh. I think this is just pathetic clickbait from Talty just like G-Mac and his “sources” telling him Saban was thinking about coaching again last year.
DeBoer might leave. USC does have an easier path to the playoff at least for now. 2 of the flagship Big-10 programs look like trash fires. Color me skeptical but I’m not totally sold on Indiana or UCLA being the same quality of opponent as Michigan and PSU when they have their shit together.
I think he is taking a self evident proposition (top programs like USC of course would inquire about KDB) and trying to use enough weasel wording to imply he has a source, and the interest would be mutual.
Hack shit.
Remember when the legacy media were saying “bloggers and independent media are just trolls and clickbait.”
Then literally the next day some sweaty editor runs in screaming for all the clickbait articles and hire the biggest trolls we can find.
when someone chucks a brick through his window, i’ll worry about it.
I have a strong feeling that none of the former Pac 12 now Big 10 schools will ever truly be elite until they become a regional conference again. And that most coaches know this.
You should look at the success rate for West Coast to East Coast travel. They’re winning less than a third of the time.
That distance and the body time matters.
although, I really do like what UCLA is doing
I do too. Bob Chesney totally overhauled the culture of that place with a quickness.
He and Will Stein both, and they built those teams around the lines as well
I’ve got no idea whether he would or wouldn’t accept if offered, but I think he probably ought to.
Right now, this roster just doesn’t look like it’s 1 year away from pushing for a title. The offense just struggles to move at all against top flight defenses and the defensive scheme just doesn’t appear to offer the ceiling you need to reach the top. Add to that an underwhelming recruiting class and a difficult 2027 schedule and it’s stacking up against him. If he can get more guaranteed money to jump to USC, he probably *should* simply because a job like that won’t be waiting on him in 1-2 more years if he proves incapable of building a title contender at Bama.
Now, all that said, if he gets offered and Bama gives him a raise and extension again on the heels of a 3+ loss season, my head may explode. Portal losses would suck if he left, but I genuinely believe that in this era, it’s going to prove much easier to rebuild through the portal than to escape a poison pill contract buyout that drains booster money out of the program.
Alabama is not far now. It is some impact linemen, a lockdown corner, and some depth away from beating anyone in the country
Even with the fucking lunatic OC.
I don’t see where those guys are coming from, though—the staff primarily seems to want to recruit big-bodied tweener/safety types at CB and shop the bargain bin on the OL. There’s not gonna be much if any immediate help from the maligned 2027 recruiting class. Unless they’re sitting on Scrooge McDuck’s money pile in the basement of Mal Moore, I don’t see how they account for the current roster’s inevitable raise demands, while still going shopping for depth and replacing the 1-year rental guys on the DL.
They come where everyone else comes from — the portal.
go take a look at UK’s starting defense: 10 transfers. Or how IU won a natty. You don’t know who’s gonna be on the market in January.
You mean the murderer’s row Cignetti brought with him from James Madison? Strange what an actual coach can do when players no longer expect cookies and a nap.
Until 2-3 road trips later, Deborah has his requisite 2-3 losses before December 1st. And WOW was I impressed with how “prepared” we looked for the SEC ChampionSHIT game last year. What a gamer. What a rough sort.
The kindergarten teacher will have plenty of excuses to hide behind since Byrne has given him a lifetime contract:
He’s such a nice guy.
“Weez young team” (because no one else in college is).
Juuuuuuust wait til Debbie gets HIS guys. WHOOOOOAAAAA MAN, then you’ll see the majesty and grandeur of 3 losses guaranteed. You. Just. Wait.
Well, it’s the NIL era and no one wins anything of note now, so…
Who cares about road games anyway, amiright?
No one is tough anymore, just avert your gaze from the tougher teams and Deborah’s teams will look really rough’n’tumble.
Those yearly streak-breaking and/or embarrassment losses are a sign of improvement.
Grubb was always meant to live in Alabama, just look at his farmer’s tan.
We had 13 players out that game or injured.
And those other young teams lose games just like we do. And the injured teams lose games just like we do.
The sport is structured to give eliminate talent stacked rosters and give everyone 2-3 losses minimum.
You want top 2 results with a top 10-ish roster budget.
I don’t know why you blame the staff for you deluding yourself.
Sabans results arent replicable. If everyone else could replicate his results he wouldn’t be the GOAT or he is the GOAT and expecting those results is delusion. Pick one. You don’t get both.
UGA is a better program right now. More stability. Veteran staff. bigger budget. bigger talent base that gives Kirby a hometown discount. Firing DeBoer for Rob Ezell or Jeremy Pruitt or whatever doofus you think is qualified because they fetched Nick a Little Debbie cake that one time isn’t going to change the hard realities of the sport.
living in southern california in the 90s, i would tear the plaschke column off the times sports page before i read it because i didnt want to start my day incensed by the whiny bleatings of an overpaid idiot.
And a vicious one, at that.