Half of the SEC title race will be decided Saturday in Baton Rouge
Rejoice, for this is the day that we Gump. And, we confess, we have more than a little trepidation about Saturday night, when No. 9 Alabama faces No. 14 LSU in Baton Rouge.
This rivalry game will almost certainly decide one half of the SEC Title game. Alabama is one of just a handful of teams that controls its destiny or needs little help getting there: One Kentucky loss and ‘Bama winning out sets up a rematch in Atlanta with the Dawgs, whose heavy lifting is over. It is that simple. But this is easily the most talented roster Lane Kiffin has ever fielded, and ‘Bama is the one victory he wants more dearly than any other. LMFK has come close before, but was never able to get over the hump. There is a better than 50-50 shot that he can do so Saturday: The Tigers are a -4.5 point favorite, after all. But, don’t sleep on the Tide either. DeBoer has an outstanding track record against ranked opponents, and the bye week could have seen several players’ health improve.
On to Monday’s links:
After another Saturday of upsets, the Top 25 saw yet another shakeup. Bama moved up a spot without lifting a finger. Meanwhile, the Utes find themselves inside the Top 5 for the first time in about a dozen years, while 7-1 Kentucky finally leapfrogged ‘Bama and move to No. 7/8.
Those rankings aren’t just academic either. They mirror very closely the advanced stats (where the Tide is No. 7 under the old BCS and No. 6 in Sagarin). The CFP’s first rankings are due out tomorrow, so the polls and advanced metrics will help shape much of that initial perception. And it’s far better to be in the hunt early than try and make up ground later (see Texas in 2025, for instance).
The Tide being ranked inside the Top 10 of all available rankings greatly helps their cause. Still, not everyone sees it that way.
- ESPN’s FPI has the Tide sitting in the First Four Out, as of today.
- CBS likewise projects ‘Bama on the outside in the first tranche of rankings.
- Yahoo, however, more closely reflects other rankings and data sets, and projects the Tide as the 8-seed. Just enough for a home game, but not a bye game.
This could all be academic, of course, come Saturday. If the Tide wins, they’re almost certainly going to make Atlanta, as well as the playoffs (assuming the rest of the season plays to chalk). A loss doesn’t automatically DQ ‘Bama, especially with the No. 4 SOS and No. 7 SOV, but we will be sweating it out…and praying for chaos. Because almost certainly at least one, and perhaps a few, 9-3 teams will be making the playoffs this year.
FSU finally allowed Mike Norvell out of the cuck chair, and let him stop watching, as they fired the 7th-year coach. It is hard to predict which direction the ‘Noles will turn to. They face a lot of structural issues in replacing him, as we reported about a month ago: Lack of an AD (and most people do want to know who their boss will be); the conference is broke (and it is uncertain whether FSU will even remain the ACC); and the school itself was already underwater before agreeing to take on the $50.3m buyout for Norvell.
FSU will need to turn to a cheap candidate like a G5 coach or hot assistant. It worked for Indiana and Kentucky, right? Or, perhaps they turn to someone with an offset buyout from a previous contract…someone like Brian Kelly. Or as we reported last month as well, Jimbo Fisher.
If they go for an assistant, we offer a humble sacrifice:
But the ‘Noles loss (or addition by subtraction) could work out to the Tide’s benefit on the Crootin’ trail, at a position of perilously thin depth too: Safety.
Alabama’s pursuit of 4-star safety Jernard Albright gets a boost with FSU firing Mike Norvell
Albright had clearly been exploring his options in recent weeks before Norvell was fired. He’s taken two visits to Alabama in the last few weeks, including an official visit to Tuscaloosa for the win over Texas A&M.
Alabama had been turning up the heat in his recruitment the last few weeks, and now might even be the odds-on favorite to land the Springfield, Georgia native.
Albright is a bigger safety at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds and would be a versatile chess piece in Kane Wommack’s defensive scheme. There’s obviously high interest from both sides for him to have come to Tuscaloosa twice in the month of October.
South Carolina may try to get back involved in Albright’s recruitment, too. He is a former Gamecocks commitment. He flipped from Carolina to Florida State during the summer, but he hasn’t been back to Columbia this fall. As of right now, the only visits he’s taken outside of trips back to Tallahassee have been to Alabama.
More here. And at the link below.
Josh over at RBR had a very cool editorial yesterday we wanted to share, about parity killing CFB’s villains:
Alabama certainly isn’t the only program that could call itself a villain over the past couple of decades. Big Ten fanbases have had a similar dynamic with Ohio State, Big 12 fanbases despised Texas before they left, and hating Notre Dame is something that many fanbases can rally behind. Saban simply won more than anyone else for a long time and managed to unite fanbases across the country.
This isn’t unique to college football. Fans that are nostalgic for “golden ages” of various sports remember the NBA dominated by the Lakers and Celtics, then Jordan’s Bulls. The Yankees were the team to hate in Major League Baseball, and thanks to the economics of the sport Los Angeles has now taken that mantle. At various times the Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys, and Patriots have been the villains of the NFL. Like Saban’s hey day at Alabama, millions of fans would watch those teams hoping to see them taste defeat.
Winning a disproportionate amount is the primary driver of that villain arc and, thanks to parity driven by NIL and the portal, right now nobody in college football is consistently dominating. There simply isn’t anyone to drive the same level of hate that sustains interest.
I think this is the corollary of what we’ve always written (both here and at RBR): College football is a better sport when its bluebloods are healthy. It’s not that we necessarily need a villain; it’s that we need super powers: In fact, I would argue that CFB is only functioning at full heath when you have good USC, Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State teams (among a handful of other superpowers, new and old).
We arrive at the same position, I think in terms of parity. It’s just a matter of viewing it as a glass half-full vs. half-empty. Because there certainly are villains, for one reason or another. Michigan, Lane Kiffin, Brian Kelly etc. Finding people and programs to hate is an easy job. It is keeping super powers healthy that has proven to be the more difficult task in the NIL era.
With basketball fast approaching, Fernandez at ‘Bama Central has a nifty feature on three KenPom stats he’ll be watching closely. This was by far my favorite of the stats that he chose (and he correctly diagnosed the reasons that Alabama doesn’t turn teams over much as well):
Steal Percentage (Stl%)
2025-26: 9.8%, No. 247 nationally
This metric measures the percentage of opponent team possessions that end with a steal by an Alabama player. This number is always going to be on the lower end in this system, as Alabama typically plays extreme drop coverage that sacrifices potential turnovers in favor of avoiding giving up easy looks in the paint.
But the reason I am highlighting this number is the improved athleticism of the roster. The system is not going to change, but the individual ability of Alabama’s defenders to create havoc very well may. Jaxson Richardson, Qayden Samuels, and Tarris Bouie need to be the catalysts here — how often can they poke balls free and deflect passes?
Go read it, then join us. #BOG
Crootin’ SZN
But every day is Crootin’ SZN in Tuscaloosa…
We now turn to the parquet, where we reported on Saturday that Alabama basketball picked up the commitment of consensus 5-star Top-20 Zion Green. The 6’9″ wing was one of Alabama’s earliest targets, and per Green had been his most ardent recruiter, well before he even became the nation’s No. 16 prospect.
A full 100-play highlight reel is available at MaxPreps, and I encourage you to watch it (they have embedding disabled). But truncated cut-ups are included below.
Green averaged 13.9ppg and 4.5 RPG, and very much plays a tweener spot the Tide has been missing (and that Auburn had with Chaney): he’s a big man who can move without the ball, create his own shot, get to the rim, and can score at three levels — including a nifty three-point touch. His length makes him a capable defender, although you’d like to see more effort on that end of the floor; the physical gifts are there. He’s also large enough to fight for rebounds, and is effective on both ends of the court on the glass.
With the Tide facing a wipeout at the wing spots next season, Green is just what the doctor ordered…assuming he’s not another one-and-done, and Alabama stands to already lose three players to the draft this season, and perhaps as many as half a dozen, depending on Green, Keitenn et al.
This was a critical pickup for ‘Bama next year. Because while ’26 may have a surfeit of wing players, the forward spots are going to be wiped out at year’s end.
And, finally, your moment of levity.
No one like a grammar Nazi.
That’s all for now. We’ll be back in a bit with some site announcements, as well as a special Early Meltdown! That’s right. Two of ’em again this week. There’ just been too much zaniness to contain this year.
See you then. Until later, take care.
Roll Tide
Gadzooks! I have yet to accumulate all the tears of the downtrodden, good sir.
I’ve got the Big 10
My early thoughts on LSU aren’t optimistic. With the disclaimer of unsure how healthy we will be / how much of an impact players like Green / Delgatty can make*.
I think we need 30+ to win, and outside of turnovers or God-mode Keelon I don’t see a compelling path. They have, statistically, top-10 units on both side. We’ve played a harder schedule, they’ve lost to Kentucky and Ole Miss.
I think there are two matchups where LSU has a decisive advantage: skill positions (Lee vs Harris, ILB vs Green) and their pass rush.
Essentially, I see a repeat of UGA / Tennessee on our offense, but this time they have matchups to exploit poor secondary play. Harris is going to go for 12 / 130 / 1 vs Lee/Sabb.
Healthy, I think we can run on them, but game flow is a big part of that. Leavitt leads the conference in INTs, we lead picks. Maybe something there. I think we have some shot potential vs their safeties. I do think there’s a good mismatch in our TE room. They’re banged up there, and we’ve shown more and more wrinkles out of that room last few weeks. Both Kentucky and Ole Miss had consistent success with TE.
The version of Bama on the road fills me with LOLz and I can already see Debbie with his hands on his knees squinting like a really sharp turd is trying to negotiate the last vestiges of the head man’s colon. We’ll make a play or two, but Debbie’s Bama teams vs motivated opponents? Sorry, but Week 1 against FSU last year told me a lot about this guy and how doughy-soft he wants the program to be.
I certainly don’t think this is a bad idea. And if they haven’t done it yet, it technically qualifies as a “good” idea IMO.
i have a bad feeling we’re gonna’ get skull fucked.
What is the vegas spread on us scoring on our first possession? +1600? Whether we get the ball first or second, they will be leading 7-0 after 5 minutes. We will go 3 and out, they will zip zip zip down the field. It is so fucking depressing that we have clueless dumbshits for coaches………….
Depending how you look at it, being skull fucked may just be what wakes this team uuuuuLOLOLOLOLOL! Couldn’t keep a straight face! Carry on!
They’ve have 2 weeks to prepare to run the exact same plays that lsu has been studying for the past two weeks. We’re fucked. Total incompetence.
For JUST a second, I thought you going to be all “Give our boys 2 weeks to prepare and we’ll give ’em the ole one TWO!”
We wont have linebackers covering Green. It most assuredly will be Bray or Red Morgan.
We are they best defense in the SEC at takeaways and they have the worst QB for giving it away.
Their pass rush is a real threat and Keelon is going to have to speed up his clock and get the ball out on time.
This going to be a game to use the backs and the TEs and the quick stuff to Lottie and RCW to keep from overloading our o-line. I still think we need to test them downfield. They did not look super competent in coverage against Ole Miss
Agreed on plan of attack/defend. With how formations and alignment can dictate to a vison-zone team, I do expect Kiffin to manufacture TE on LB mismatches and an unfortunately high clip.
its less of an issue in zone. I wouldnt put anyone in man on that guy without some help over top
And we’re gonna have to leave a tight end to help Jayvin James, too. Everyone else has played pretty solid for the most part. Klemm has done a great job with what he inherited.
but Jayvin has entire games where he is a turnstile. Carroll has disguised a lot of it. I have no idea why that guy is not starting right tackle and James is not at right guard, or Brooks at RG for that matter.
I don’t think Brooks can move well enough to do what is needed from a guard in this run game
I think the defensively it’s gonna be closer to the Tennessee game. We have to shut down their running game and force Levitt to stay in the pocket and throw.
That is the only way we are winning this game on that side of the ball.
^^This^^
CFB is by nature an aristocratic/hierarchical (dare I say feudal) construct. A place for everyone, and everyone in their place. Did the lower orders historically experience the occasional twinge of jealousy toward their betters? Sure, and sometimes (eg API towards Bama) it was a lot more than that. But at the same time, they could feel fundamentally positive about the state of their program by getting to (and especially winning) an appropriate tier bowl game.
With the playoff (especially the 12-team version, and just WAIT until it’s 24), nobody has a truly satisfactory conclusion to their season unless they win it all. Which is fine if you’re Bama. Or ND. Or Meatchicken, Nubber (Lord love ’em, how the mighty have fallen), OU, OSU, or SoCal. Barely plausible marginal case for Tejas, and (IMO) not quite plausible marginal case for Penn St. But that should not be the case for the rest of the sport.
We have replaced a healthy, functioning aristocracy with a crass, cutthroat plutocracy thinly disguised as an egalitarian order. May Ghu have mercy on our souls.
That last paragraph is magic.
there is a reason that the most enduring forms of government have tended to be aristocracies and not democracies.
Got a weird, bad feeling about Saturday, y’all.
Nothing weird. We’re screwed.
OK, it’s not just a tingling in my gooch then.
Hear me out. Never mind, I got nothing.
— Kalen DeBoer
meh. LSU is almost as inconsistent as we are.
Almost? I’m not sure they aren’t even more inconsistent than we are. And I’m convinced Lane is going to press and do something
stupidLane that will cost them the game.