Not a single model predicts the Crimson Tide to win this game, and it is the small things that are adding up.
On paper, it’s not really that bad.
The Alabama Crimson Tide is a +3.5 point underdog in Baton Rouge, suggesting that the Tigers are no worse than a half-point or so better on a neutral field. But that’s where we see our first “almost” stat of the contest. LSU’s analytical profile is filled with a dozen or more many small advantages. And, eventually, those advantages multiply. Of the ten major statistical models, not a single one has the Crimson Tide favored against the No. 14 LSU Tigers, not even on a neutral field. On the road, it’s even starker, as just two of the ten have this game under a field goal, with the Tide being a +2.7 dog on the low end all the way to SP+ putting it closer to a touchdown (+6.8).
Let’s see why, and then figure out what the Crimson Tide can do to bring home a victory that many do not expect from Alabama.
Tale of the Tape
The raw statistics do not at all seem close. LSU has allowed far fewer passing yards, they have 100 more yards per game offensively, they’re allowing a TD less, about 25 fewer yards on the ground, etc. But there is a serious skew in the data too. The Tigers have faced the No. 69 defensive schedule, and the No. 68th offensive one. Alabama has faced the No. 21 defensive schedule and the No. 17 offensive one: The Crimson Tide’s opponents have been a lot better on average on both sides of the ball. And it shows too in the SOS (7 v 23) and SOV (8 v. 16).
Here is a table I generated from the data using a free tool at Table Convert. (I highly recommend it if you are dealing with raw numbers that you need to pretty up into a table etc.).
The advanced stats are far closer than raw stats, but we see a general trend emerging: no matter how good ‘Bama is, LSU is better than Alabama, usually by just a whisker.
LSU places higher than the Tide in SP+. The data still show two elite teams, with ‘Bama having the No. 7 offense, while LSU comes in at No. 5. Defensively, the Tide is 14th — still outstanding, but again, LSU is better here too, placing 5th. The Tigers are also better at stuff rate, sack rate, and havoc plays on defense.
Offensively, for as much as the Tide relies on explosive plays, they’re again close, but again LSU edges out ‘Bama in both sheer number of big gainers and as a proportion of the offense. In fact, LSU is 2nd nationally in explosive plays and 5th in proportion of offense. Alabama”s big play offense has practically dried up: they’re just 50th in the country, and in the middle of the pack in the SEC (8th).
Success rate paints a similar picture: The teams are even in some respects, but LSU is just a shade better: Alabama’s offense ranks 12th nationally in EPA per play at +0.26, while the defense is 18th at -0.01. LSU’s offense is 10th at +0.26., and the defense is 11th in EPA (-0.04). And most of LSU’s defensive success is coming on early downs, where the Tigers are 2nd in the conference on 1st down defense EPA. The Tide is 5th.
And, finally, using FEI data with opponent-adjusted stats, you have Alabama placing 4th overall, with the Tigers being 2nd. Defensively, ‘Bama is 8th, whereas the Tigers are 6th. Offensively, Alabama is 6th, and LSU is 2nd.
So, LSU is better by a whisker in most cases, sure. But all of those whiskers eventually add up to a beard.
Surely there’s some good news, right?
Don’t despair just yet. There is good news for ‘Bama fans — and actually fairly significant good news. Alabama does come into game with some favorable matchups, and LSU flat-out has some weaknesses.
1. LSU’s offensive line is booty at times
Brent over at RBR explains in English what my folio of stats reflect: The Tigers have struggled at the tackle spots in pass rush, and there are interior weaknesses in run blocking.
Their offensive line has been spotty at times this year, with Jones struggling to get good averaging rushing stats, and generally only getting 2 yards before contact. The pass protection has been decent enough, but Sam Leavitt does a lot of scrambling and quick passing to get around some of the protection issues they’ve had.
Notably, left tackle Jordan Seaton, one of the famously highest paid NILs ever, has struggled at times to live up to his lofty recruiting rankings and transfer portal status. He’s got the upside, but to this point hasn’t put things together consistently. Right tackle Weston Davis has been a problem for them as well, giving up 18 QB pressures and earning some pretty terrible run blocking grades (49.8 on PFF…. Oof). Guard Bo Bordelon also got benched after week 4 for Tennessee transfer William Satterwhite, who’s helped stabilize things up the interior.
How bad is it, really, when the whistle blows? LSU is the 3rd-worst in the conference in pressures allowed. Alabama has surrendered 57 pressures, but they’ve also played four teams inside the Top 25 of defensive efficency. LSU has allowed almost as many in their conference games (51), and they’ve only faced one Top 25 defense. In other words, a great effort by the defensive line can stymy the running game, and put Leavitt under pressure.
And you want Leavitt pressured, because…
3. Sam Leavitt is the weak link on this offense, if you can keep him in the pocket
Leavitt is a turnover magnet.
He’s thrown eight interceptions against the 69th-ranked defensive schedule, and six of those came against extra pass rushers. You have to put him under pressure, and that pressure has to get home. Let’s look at his career game, against Aggie. A&M stayed in zone most of the night against Sam, and he picked them apart, throwing for 312 yards and a pair of scores. But, against the seven extra pass rushers he faced, he completed just four passes and threw an interception: 13% below his season completion rate. And his 2026 interception rate of 3.3% is considerably higher than the national average of 2.0%. On top of that, he has lost 11 fumbles in three and a half years, again, about 50% higher than the national average.
If you can prevent Leavitt from scrambling, where his legs are a weapon all their own, he’ll give the ball away.
3. LSU turns the ball over a lot and doesn’t force many defensively
Related to Sam Leavitt’s struggles is the corollary: their defense simply does not force many turnovers. They’re one of just four teams inside the CFP Top 25 with a negative in the +/- turnover ledger (-2), and they are the only one inside the AP Top 10 coming up in the red there.
In SEC games it’s been even more stark. The Tigers have only forced four turnovers in five SEC contests. Alabama leads the SEC in SEC TOs forced. Against ranked teams, it’s yet worse again: LSU has only forced one turnover against a ranked opponent, and they’re actually -2 in their two games against ranked opponents. The Tide are +4.
That 6-turnover swing is huge…if Alabama can hang on to the ball. We know Leavitt will give it away at some point, but it’s incumbent for Alabama to play smart as well against a defense that doesn’t force turnovers on their own.
4. Intangibles
I know, I know. You can’t really quantify intangibles, but you do reach a point where so many trends eventually add up to a habit. And the Tide has a serious one on the sidelines:
- Kalen DeBoer is a perfect 8-0 coming off a bye week. Lane Kiffin is just 9-6 with an extra week to prepare.
- Lane Kiffin’s record against Top 25 opponents is 15-26 (36.6%). And when is team is inside the Top 10 vs. an opponent also inside the Top 10, Lane Kiffin is just 1-7.
- Kalen Deboer’s record against ranked teams 21-8 career record (72.4%). Against the Top 10, he’s 8-4, and as a Top 10 team vs. a Top 10 opponent is 6-3.
I know KDB has faced some pushback from fans (and I am every bit out on some of his coaching staff as anyone), but that is still an impressive body of work in the biggest games, and especially when he’s had an extra week to work with.
Bottom Line and Prediction:
LSU has the speed to go vertical, however, they’ve not relied on it on this season so far. They do however devour you with YAC and winning the line of scrimmage. It would be foolish for the Tide to play deep centerfield and concede free yards to this offense, especially in a game that will call for lots of pressure on Leavitt, and in the front seven controlling the Tigers running game. If they can do that, they can force turnovers.
Road turnovers, putting your offense into position to match LSU punch-for-punch is all you can ask for out of a defense that is going to get scored on some. From there, it will be in the hands of the Tide offense, and we all pray for a healthy offensive line, a smart game by Keelon Russell, and a Ryan Grubb content to take the yards that are there rather than stubbornly trying to force his best-laid plans on to a game dynamic that is calling for a very different approach.
Execution and coaching, in other words.
But, at the end of the day, the Tide is still too banged up, its starters and key contributors too young, to ask for all of that to happen on the road against a healthier LSU team with a bit more talent and certainly more high-end depth.
Our Call:
LSU 31
Alabama 27
Fuck LSU and fuck Kiffin’s scumbag ass.
Your lips to god’s ears. If LSU didn’t have more talent after spending $50m, I’d be concerned.
If I recall correctly I remember your models predicting a comfortable victory over Tennessee so I’m going to predict this is the model overcorrecting and going the opposite direction.
LSU 30.8
Alabama 27.1 was the composite.
high end had LSU by 6.8. Low end was LSU .2.8
That shouldn’t surprise us. They’ve had an easier schedule. That’s why I included intangibles like byes, ranked games etc.
At the end of the day, you still have to play the games. And we don’t know what’s gonna happen until the ball gets kicked off do we? 💪🏼
I’m gonna hold out hope, because we can beat anyone in the country
Baker’s defenses get absolutely shredded by QBs who can use their legs so I’m hopeful Keelon can possibly channel his inner Milroe and scramble for a lot of yardage.
Yup. Leavitt isn’t the only qb out there with wheels, and not the best one either.
Love your analysis, and also don’t mind being the ‘Dog in this game. LK can coach…let us see what CKD does
KDB has a 10-4 record as a Dog. That’s REALLY damn good with his back to the wall (71.4%).
Kiffin is just 52-43-3 (53%) ATS, and just 68-30 S/U as a favorite…just 68%.
FTR: Nick Saban’s record as an underdog: 36-24. KDB has been better as a Dog even than the Goat.
And thank you for the compliment. I appreciate it.
Whit Weeks is OUT.
Okay fellow nerds, best Warhammer series to start reading.
Start with the first, the one that shows you the state of humanity in the 41st century, and really establishes a lot of the critical lore, “First and Only” by Dave Abnett.
After you get your feet under you, the Horus Heresy trilogy, Dante, Helsreach, Betrayer, the Infinite and the Divine, Assassinorum Kingmaker, and Xenos are also all great.
Okay, NOW (for reasons I cannot fathom) I think we have a chance. Don’t get me wrong, Grubb will still try to pass against a 1-man front on 4th & inches. Debbie will be squinting, bent over wondering what state he’s in, but if everyone is picking against us – even nerdy computers – we may have a chance.
One other “intangible” (if that’s the correct categorization) that the data don’t really account for is the “Post-UGA hangover” effect. If we simply omitted the 10rc game (on the hypothesis that nothing from that game has any predictive value because of that effect), one wonders whether the corndogs would still have the advantage.
I don’t necessarily think we can completely disregard that game, because some of our issues were surely attributable to playing in a difficult, hostile road environment (which definitely WOULD have predictive value). But I have to think a LOT of what we saw was attributable to emptying the tank against the dwags. Some was also due to the various injuries, some or all of which may or may not be back, may or may not be close enough to 100% to be effective, etc.
Suffice to say, I’m a numbers/data guy (accountant by profession, so obviously), but there is enough here that the data simply cannot capture for me to feel pretty good about our chances.
They did let UGA get in their head a bit. And the hangover after the Vawls game was almost as bad.