A conference runner-up with 20 wins isn’t an average buy-game, is it?
Rejoice, for this is the day that we Gump. We are now about 24 hours away from one of the SEC’s most important games of the year. And that says something in a week that sees Kentucky and Tennessee square off in another CFP elimination match. It’s actually been a relatively quiet week out of the football complex, and given how grim everyone seemed on Monday, I think we can assume that everyone is just dialed in. That sort of normalcy gives me some hope; they’re treating it as another SEC game.
Let’s see happening on this sleepy TGIF Friday.
No. 20 Alabama basketball (1-0) hosts Arkansas State this evening at Coleman Coliseum.
The Red Wolves were previously helmed by Brian Hodges who immediately went to USF after two seasons of success, and now finds himself at Providence. He was succeeded by another ‘Bama assistant, Ryan Pannone, who won 20 games and tied for 2nd in the Sun Belt in his first season in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves made the conference semis, but despite the 20 wins and postseason success did not receive any postseason invitations last year.
What to expect tonight from ASU?
When Pannone came over from the NBA to join Oats’ staff, he brought with him a lot of their 5-out offensive schemes to augment Alabama’s 4-out system. The 5-out relies on cuts to the basket, and beating your initial defender off the dribble. And that first cut is then giving way to more cuts by the other four players. Guys are in constant motion. And it puts a lot of defensive stress on not just the backcourt but on everyone playing off-ball defense. The cuts aren’t just motion for motion sake; they are used to set-up screens.
Initiating the Offense – RIP Screen Late Cut
To begin every possession Coach Pannone wants an aggressive rim cut in order to set the table for the rest of the possession. In order to achieve this rim pressure, the 5-Man sets a point or away screen…What Coach Pannone has found with this initial cut is it often leads to more cutting. As shown in today’s video, with the offense chasing the possession immediately off this cut opportunities for more cuts arise before they even get to their primary Delay reads.
Zooming In 2.0: Not shown above, but the 5 defender will often track the rim cut, creating an easier catch for the 5-Man on the 3-point line to initiate the next phase of the possession.
Of course, when screening for a shooter, the point screen is an effective option. However, when screening for a non-shooter or when the opposing team is denying the point screen, Coach Pannone teaches his bigs to change their angle and set a RIP Screen…
If it sounds familiar, it should. Nate Oats has adopted many of Pannone’s offensive concepts and incorporated them into his offense. In fact, he said this week that Pannone’s offensive drills and approach still impact Alabama and make them a better team, long after his departure.
ASU is just 183rd in KenPom’s rankings, but they’ve only played one game; a gritty 71-70 home victory over MAC preseason favorite, Toledo. By year’s end, this will likely be a solid Q2 opponent.
The Red Wolves are a quality team and they’re going to force a young Alabama team to be a lot more active defensively than they were against the spot-and-shoot Bearkats of Sam Houston State. If the Tide has an off-night can the Red Wolves still win? Likely not. But anything can happen in college basketball
It’s no surprise then that Nate Oats is calling for students to pack the Mausoleum, and for everyone to get loud tonight. This isn’t a gimme.
Lane Kiffin had his weekly presser, ICYMI. And, just as he did in the bye, LMFK is heaping all the rat poison he can find on to Tuscaloosa:
Kiffin labeled Alabama as the “most talented team” that LSU has faced so far this season. The LSU coach believes that the current Crimson Tide squad appears similar to “old Alabama teams.”
“We’ve got to make sure that we perform really well against a really good team that’s coached really well, that has really good players,” Kiffin explained.
“And you see them, and they look like old Alabama teams as far as their size, and length, and explosiveness of the skilled positions on offense and the quarterback,” Kiffin continued.
“So we’re going to have to play really well, because I do think this is the most talented (team), when you take the 22 (players), you know, not just the quarterback. This is the most talented team that we’ve played so far.”
If you missed the presser, or want to see what the morally bankrupt, mendacious weasel has to say, here ya’ go:
This interesting new ranking system came across the timeline last night, and two things jump out about it: 1. How much sense it makes, and 2. How closely much of it already tracks with the AP poll — about a dozen teams are no more than two spots removed from their AP ranking (which in turn tracks pretty closely with the first CFP rankings).
If you want to see how it stacks up with the dozens of other computer rankings, check out the Massey Index below. For my part, I really like it. It’s very elegant, and moreover approaches rankings the way that I think they ought to be generated: Quality wins have to be the primary guidepost.
Those looking for good news in last night’s availability report are going to be disappointed.
Not only did we not receive improved news on several key players (Delgatty etc.), now backup Center Casey Poe has landed on the doubtful list. To that, add Jett Thomalla, and there are many rumors swirling around about his absence (there is a lot of smoke coming from the program that he is heading to Mizzou when the Portal opens. And that makes sense, as it is close to home, the Tigers can afford him, he’s going to be in a depth chart war with Trent Seaborn, and after Simmons leaves, Mizzou will be in desperate need of a difference-maker under center).
We repeat: If it weren’t for bad luck…
Looks like the CFP Rules Committee accidentally stumbled into another good idea:
The NCAA has approved changes to the FBS calendar — including a shortened transfer portal in January, moving up Week 1 and an altered offseason practice calendar that will allow for NFL-style voluntary workouts over the summer. The changes will go into effect on Jan. 1.
Under the new calendar approved by the NCAA, the FBS season would begin one week earlier, on what is now Week 0. With another week added to the schedule, each team would get a second bye week. The newly approved calendar also includes a shortened transfer portal window and a significant shift in the rules about offseason activities.
We will now have one portal period of ten days (and this season, it is Jan. 4 to Jan. 13), and we will now have the ability for teams to have voluntary pitch and catch sessions over the summer, lift weights etc. without the NCAA breathing down their neck. It was always happening, but now it’s good and legal.
I would also argue that it is necessary now with so many teams completely turning over rosters from year to year. One 15-day Fall practice period is nowhere near enough to acclimate players to their new squads, get familiar with the playbooks, etc. Perhaps we will see a bit better football to start future seasons.
SI has a very good feature this morning on three matchups that will help determine the game. And I (unfortunately) agree with this one:
Jackson Lloyd/Jayvin James vs. Princewill Umanmielen
Alabama has faced some prominent pass-rushers this season, but LSU defensive end Princewill Umanmielen has a strong argument to be the best. Umanmielen’s 8.5 sacks rank fifth in the country, while his 12 tackles for loss are tied for ninth. The senior is second in the SEC in each of these stat categories.
There have been numerous instances this season where Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell has held the ball for too long, and giving any edge to Umanmielen, along with the rest of LSU’s pass-rush — which leads the country in sacks per game (4.4) — will make it very difficult for Alabama to come out on top.
Umanmielen, an Ole Miss transfer who was one of four Rebels to follow Lane Kiffin to Baton Rouge, lines up at both defensive end spots. In other words, Alabama left tackle Jackson Lloyd and right tackle Jayvin James will have to be on their A-game. Lloyd gave up three pressures and a sack in the loss to Tennessee, per PFF, while James allowed one pressure and committed two penalties. This road environment will display very similar obstacles.
“He’s an excellent football player, and I think he shows up,” Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said of Umanmielen on Monday. “Sometimes, you see guys that are maybe a little more singular-faceted, like maybe he’s more just against the run or the pass, but I think he’s a really well-rounded player.
“You hear about the sacks, but he certainly can be destructive in the run game as well. He’s got great block destruction on the edge and plays hard, plays physical. So I think he’s a guy certainly, we’re going to have to keep track of during the day.”
Jayvin has struggled at times this year against elite rushers, and Umanmielen is one of the conference’s best. That’s perhaps also why Roll Tide Wire has already predicted ‘Bama’s OL to struggle with the pass rush of the Tigers.
And, finally, your moment of levity…If you’ve never met a Nigerian, this is 100% accurate.
We’ll be back later today with our Viewing Guide. If you missed it, we have our Analytical Preview of the LSU-Aabama game up now for your consideration (link below). AND we have a special CFP Ranking Mini-Meltdown for you as well(!!!).
But, until then, thanks for dropping by, have a great day, and take care.
Roll Tide
What does this mean?
It was just stupid predictive text on my phone: Trent Seaborn is who I said.
That dude is HIM
Gotcha. Seaborn is definitely a baller but I worry he’s not big enough for the SEC. I see Haven as potentially a massive bust considering the level of competition he plays against in high school. I get not wanting to sit behind Keelon for another year but if Thomalla was patient I would bet he would be starting in 2028.
Also I don’t understand why he’s listed as doubtful on an injury report if he’s just considering transferring. He can’t enter the portal until January so why not be a full participant until then? Seems like a stupid reason to stunt your own development.
Yeah. I was counting on Thomalla in 28 as well. Because I *also* think Haven is going to bust.
he’s nowhere near where he needs to be as a passer.
at a minimum “a year or two in the oven.”
https://medium.com/@ThinRedLine/no-1-quarterback-recruit-elijah-havens-commits-to-the-tide-247bbae0c71a
that may be the most critical, objective look at Haven’s game out there.
Part of the eval
Saban said on McAfee today that he expects bama to get Race, RCW, and Terrance Green back this week. Around that same time Chris Low reported that RCW is expected to play tomorrow.
id imagine CNS wouldn’t say that on national tv if he didn’t have confidence and sources that race and TG were good to go for tomorrow.
TG coming back would be huge. But Race returning could mean the difference between a win and a loss.
that is easily the most brutal injury we have had this year.
and I have no idea if Poe is sitting out just for the hell of it, and pulling a jett so that he doesn’t get hurt before the portal, or if he got banged up in the bye week or what.
But our center depth is now praying for Delgatty or running Waldrep out there in Death Valley 🤮
ITS OFFICIAL!! Yea Alabama confirms that Race TG and RCW are all expected to play tomorrow