Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
Week 1: 5–3
2026: 10–6
Mortal Lock: 2–1
I hate to brag, but I made a killing last week. I hit an eight-leg parlay for $2284, and at one point was 19-4; for the week, we were up $3100 or so.
But, such is selection bias. Since every week, I have to choose 6-8 games to include here, but I actually run the data on 30-40 games, this space is necessarily limited by how well I choose those. Que sera, sera.
Still, I’m not going to complain about a 23-6 week. Ever. Now, let’s check our homework from last week.
Week 2 Postmortem
Told ya’ :
UCLA -9.5 v SDSU:
Whew, do the data ever like UCLA after last week’s thrashing of Cal. And I don’t actually totally disagree with them either. Talent was never the issue in Westwood. Bruins by two TDs. This UCLA team is potentially very dangerous.
Verdict: UCLA by 17 in a game where their defense was suffocating.
What the?:
Oklahoma -5 @ Michigan: Are they watching the same teams we are? It’s not going to be pretty; UM can still play defense. But Bryce Underwood vs Brent Venables is like a chess grandmaster walking onto a short bus with a board and asking who wants to play for $20 a pop… (And I really do like OU’s improved offensive scheme). Mauling upcoming, but a low scoring one with a 10–13 point sort of final score. Dirt Burglars.
Verdict: John Mateer was hopeless out there. Venables best bench him, or he will be fired by Thanksgiving. What an awful offense .
On to to Week Two, with all odds via Vegas Insider.
And if you don’t know, here’s the skinny: Every week, I pick half a dozen games over here (and you can pay me eight bucks a month and get all of them, every week. Always. Be. Closing.): One to stay well away from or that is too close to call, one we like, one we love, an underdog, a ginormous spread that the data still thinks is feasible, and a mortal lock.
Just like the last few weeks, we’re giving you a few bonus picks too!
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:
Syracuse +10.5 @ Pitt
Our No.1 untouchable game is also the first one of the week, and a lot of things counsel against taking this. The first is general ACC fuckery, where every game seems to be played between 3 and 11 points. The second is Narduzzi as a favorite. Dude is simply not a great favorite; sure, they’re a lot better at home, but I’m not risking money on a 62% guy. Third, Angeli is back for the Cuse, and the Orange offense looks good. Data back that up. Finally, the numbers think this one is about a 9.7 point game, well within the margin of error. There aren’t a lot of great games this week, but there are still better ones than this. Nah.
A Few We like:
Alabama -18.5 to -20 vs Florida State:
What is this sorcery? Back to back ‘Bama games? It’s also one of the better games on the board this week. The FSU defense is positively atrocious; Bama’s offense should find plenty of space to roam free. FSU simply cannot throw the football. They’ll get a few in, because the Tide gambles and the Noles have the best wideout the Tide have seen to date. But Ashton Daniels isn’t going to have a clean pocket, and FSU’s best weapon — the ground game — runs head-first into the Tide’s strength: defensive front. Alabama covers, and it could be pretty damn ugly if they’re clicking.
Va. Tech -3 @ Maryland:
This is a suspiciously low spread, given how well the Hokies are playing in all three phases. Franklin knows Locks’ offense intimately from prior Big 10 play, and he has the athletes to keep it in check, while exploiting a soft UMD linebacking corps with underneath passes and RTDB. Va. Tech may wake from this dream at some point, but it probably won’t be this week. The honeymoon continues in Blacksburg. Gobble Gobble MFer.
Fresno State -6 @ San Jose State:
In a similar vein, this is another is a suspiciously low spread, given how damn good the Bulldogs have been and how porous the Spartans’ secondary is. Fresno is one of the best teams in the Mountain that no one is talking about. Ken Numiotola will SJSU there eventually, with his high flying offense (weird to type), but FSU has simply been better analytically, and with your eyeballs. Fresno State.
Iowa State -23.5 @ Bowling Green:
If the Cyclones don’t have a CyHawk hangover, they should be able to choke the life out of the woebegone Falcons. The Cyclones offense lacks the pop of recent years, but the defense has looked much stouter than it was under Campbell. And the speed, goodness, the speed. ISU should finally be able to get those weapons loose on the outside. ‘Clones
Underdog With Bite
La. Tech +20 @ Baylor:
It could be a fairly decent week for the ‘dogs, and the data like this one: A pesky Bulldogs secondary, an underdog that simply doesn’t quit, a buttoned up home favorite staring at the heart of conference play, a snoozy 11:00 kickoff, and a BU offense that needs to run the ball a lot better. The pieces are there for a solid but not overwhelming win by the home Bears. La. Tech
Ginormous Spread Worth Your While
Michigan -34.5 vs UTEP:
If you’re feeling daring, give Oregon a try: -57.5 vs. Portland State (and the numbers think they cover too!). But this seems the more solid risk. No matter how awful the Wolverines offense is, and how pitiful Bryce Underwood — and they are both of those things, I don’t see a conceivable world where the Miners can score here, not against a defense averaging seven points allowed per game. Dayum. Meatchicken it is.
Mortal Lock…sort of.
I debated even having a Mortal Lock this week; that’s how bad most of the data (and spreads) are this week. But I must still give the audience what they demand, so let’s see what we can pull out of our hat. And we’ll pick two, although in most weeks, these would simply be “love” games, not Mortal Locks. Take that for what it’s worth.
Minnesota -20.5 v Akron: Gophers aren’t the best home favorite out there, but three tuddies against one of the MAC’s worst looks attainable. And the data suggest the Gophers get there by 26.
For that matter, you could throw the Michigan / UTEP game in here as well. But you need new content, so we’ll go with:
TCU -20.5 v Ark. State: The Red Wolves hideous defense is in for a bit of a wake up call. As if they needed one. The Big 12 lives for beating up crappy teams. Frogs it is.
Alright, that’s a fork in Week 3. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Just $7.84 a month, still cheaper than Fairlife Milk — why the odd price? Because those are actual charges from Patreon, Apple, and the card processor. I’m only making five bucks, which criminal.
Whooo! Roll Damn Competent Web Dev!
Dale yeah, Erik, we out here making left turns!
Raise hell, praise Dale
Funk yeah the site’s a ton better. Roll Tide brother!
Yeah, it’s a LOT better. Cleaner, faster, easier to navigate, easier to read, tc. Just a better experience all around.
copy the little symbol that looks like this , then press paste. that’s how to insert gifs from Tenor.
What platform to wager do you use?
Sorry. Just saw this. I use Bally’s offshore for my bigger bets. GAM uses My Bookie, since they don’t geofence you.
8-1, baby. GAM is rolling.