Alabama is now officially the underdog
Tonight the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners under the lights at Gaylord Memorial. It is expected to be a close game, as was their earlier meeting in Tuscaloosa, with defenses leading the way.
It has also proven to be a volatile game on the books. The №9 Crimson Tide opened the playoffs as a slight favorite, at -2. As the week has progressed, as the national media have convinced themselves that Alabama doesn’t belong here — but Kalen DeBoer somehow belongs in Ann Arbor — more money has tilted towards the Sooners, and now it is the home team that is favored (-1.5).
This seems to be the effect of casuals rather than the sharps, as 71% of wagers are coming in for OU, while ‘Bama is holding its own with larger action.
But what do the numbers say?
This game is going to be decided on a few grounds.
- Who Can Run The Ball Just Enough?
These are the two worst rushing offenses in the SEC for reasons that appear to be related as much to talent as ideology. The Sooners simply don’t try to power the ball as they did even three years ago. And Alabama, while it tries, simply lacks the players who can consistently read a hole, even with the offensive line gets a win. Jam Miller has had his moments, both good and ill. And Daniel Hill hits the hole harder. But on balance, it will depend if we see the Miller of the Auburn/EIU game or the one that no-showed for half of the season. It will be imperative for the Tide to get the win there at least enough to keep OU off-balance, because as good as the Sooners are defensively on the ground, they’re better on the pass rush. They’re healthy now too up front, so expect those down linemen to be flying. Overall, however, this advantage tilts to Oklahoma.
2. Who Can Be Most Creative In Short / Intermediate Passing?
This figures to be the area where Alabama has the biggest advantage over its counterpart. The Tide moved the ball well on the Sooners, and even did a fair job keeping Ty upright. Three turnovers cost the Tide that game, not the production. Oklahoma will give you looks underneath, as they play a lot of two-high and disguise pressure from that centerfield approach. Getting the ball out, making off-schedule throws, and winning schematic battles under 15 yards and three seconds is crucial.
Alabama doubled up OU in offense in their first meeting, and alongside Tennessee, was one of the few teams able to crack the code and work in run/pass mix. In both cases, the Sooners won with a late turnover in one-score games. John Mateer, for all his faults, didn’t turn the ball over in Tuscaloosa, but he wasn’t good either. The Tide bottled up that offense easily for just 206 yards. And, with the wind also a factor tonight, this one looks to be even more critical. Don’t look for deep balls (despite the fact Venables invites you to throw them). Look for a lot of 7-yard throws, some scrambles, and hard-fought 3-yard runs. Advantage: ‘Bama
3. Turnovers
On paper, it shouldn’t be a close call. The Tide should win the TO battle by +1.33. But you do have to play the game. And, no matter how well the Tide have played all year and forced takeaways, they had a lot of uncharacteristic mistakes too in Tuscaloosa — even the steady Jam Miller dropped a sure touchdown on a swing pass. At the end of the day though, data sets suggest probabilities, not analyses or predictions or post-mortems. Oklahoma can turn the ball over, and Alabama can force them. Can they hang on to the ball though? Probabilities suggest that they can…no matter how gunshy fans may be at the moment. Advantage: Alabama
For the first time in months, the Tide is mostly healthy. The SECCG wasn’t representative of Alabama playing mostly at full-strength. Unfortunately, LT Overton will be out. But in ways that will matter most on the scoreboard — Ceuvas, Miller, the line — players will be back and hopefully focused.
It’s a very close game here, but, given all the data, the current spread suggests that the wrong team is favored, ever so slightly…and if you bet this either way, you’re a braver man than I.
Alabama -.386
Crimson Tide 17
Sooners 16
Alright. Who do you have tonight? Why? What’s your score prediction?
