Giving Away Money 2026: Week 5 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.

Week 4: 6-1
2026: 25-8
Mortal Lock: 4–1

I’m just going to copy and paste what I wrote last week, when we went 8-1, only changing the record and amount I finished up for this week:

Last week shoulda’ been hella’ profitable for everyone, if you followed the math on this here website: we went 6-1 on the week, and I was up $141 on all of my personal wagers. That follows up a great Week 2 as well, and we’re rebounding very nicely from a bad Week Zero on the year.

Gloating? You bet your ass I am. We’re at 72.7% on the year, far outperforming folks charging you $99 a month. But, hell we already know I’m cheap. Now, let’s check our homework from last week, and move on to Week 5.

Week 4 Postmortem

Told ya’ :

Auburn -10 v Vanderbilt: I have crunched the numbers on this a dozen ways, and I still can’t figure it out. You probably can’t either. Auburn can’t run the ball, and Byrnum Brown has YOLO balls and scrambles. That’s the Tiger offense. Vandy is still somewhat finding its way and identity, but a forgiving third down Auburn defense vs. the pass should help them get there. Most of the data project that the ‘Dores covers as a ‘dog. And I’m not sure that they don’t win straight up either. VU

Verdict: It was as bad a game as we imagined, and of course Auburn isn’t two scores better any SEC team — I’m not sold they beat Arkansas by 10 either: 21-15 ‘Barn.

What the?:

Well, we only missed on one game last week, and it was Luhvl, who at least had the decency to lose straight up too, as Wake Forest went on the road and absolutely walloped the Cardinals:

This game won’t be a beating, the Deacs defense is better than the sum of their parts. But the Cardinals can beat you running or passing, and the secondary is excellent. The only thing to watch is the natural UL hangover over last week’s far more meaningful game. Still should be a cover in the 14-17-point range at home. Luhvl.

Verdict: The Deacons defense did show up…so did their running game. UL simply could not stop it. Reminded me of the classic:

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On to to Week Five, with all odds via Vegas Insider.

And if you don’t know, here’s the skinny: Every week, I pick half a dozen games over here: One to stay well away from or that is too close to call, one we like, one we love, an underdog, a ginormous spread that the data still thinks is feasible, and a mortal lock. (And you can pay me eight bucks a month and get all of them, every week. Always. Be. Closing.)

Just like the last few weeks, we’re giving you a few bonus picks here too! This may be the last week I do so though. I mean it this time, y’all.

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Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:

FSU -2.5 vs Virginia

You’ve seen Florida State’s defense first hand. The Cavaliers aren’t much better. You’ve seen the ‘Noles offense too; the Cavs are just about as good on that side of the ball. This is a straight tossup…although you gotta’ love over 51.5 with these two secondaries. Still, I’m not touching this spread for any amount of money. If Norvell wants to stay employed, he has to win this. You puttin’ your money on that kind of desperation? I’m not.

Kentucky +3 @ South Carolina

Beamer is just as desperate for a win as Norvell is. After the second-half implosion against Mississippi State, and getting shelled in Tuscaloosa in a game where everyone was an ill-disciplined mess, the Gamecocks may not quite need a W against a suddenly-good Wildcats squad, but they must play well. Carrying one loss already in the SEC, a resurgent UK squad doesn’t want to drop to .500 in the league either and lose all the momentum they’ve been building up either. And honestly, eyeballs and analytically, this is coin-toss. Kentucky has the scheme; the Gamecocks have the talent. Nope outta’ this one, fellas.

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A Few We like:

Vawls -7 v Awbarn:

The Tigers offense figures to struggle mightily on the road against a very good UT defensive front. The secondary isn’t that far behind. And with AU’s lack of a running game, they’re going to be a one dimensional team in that sweet 2:30 national slot. That ain’t a great formula when your one dimension is Byrum Brown in Neyland. This will easily be the most hostile crowd he has ever seen (WADR to Bryant Denny). Like the Gamecocks, the Vols are desperate for a win. They have to get this one, and they likely will. Let’s see if Faizon Brandon and that putrid offensive line can get healthy against the Barn. Tennessee, narrowly. Looks like a game in single digits on paper. Enough to cover, but fewer than 10.

North Dakota State -16.5 v Wyoming:

A year ago, NDSU was pantsing FCS teams. This September, they’re undefeated in the Big Boy league, are a member of a G6 conference eligible for the playoffs, and are a three-score favorite in Fargo against a D1 squad that has played FBS ball for over a century. Damn. And the kicker? They’re favored by that many for a reason. Not only does Wyoming have one of the nation’s worst defenses, it has one of the worst turnover margins in the country as well. That’s a terrible combination going against a team who is T-2nd in the country at +10 in turnover margin, and has the 9th best defense to go with a brutally efficient offense. And they’re on the road. Algorithm likes the Bison all the way up to -19.5

Alabama -6 @ Mississippi State:

I don’t know that Alabama can keep the MSU offense under 27-28 points; not with the way they live off explosive plays and ‘Bama gives them up, but I’m fairly certain their defense can’t stop the Tide from racking up half a hundred if UA keeps their foot on the gas. I ran these data through all five of my algorithms, as well as the composite, and not a single one of them had the Bulldogs covering. Not one, much less do they have Bully winning. That ‘State defense just flat-out has some holes in in it that can be had, whereas the Tide’s issues have been a lack of consistency or communication breakdowns. You can coach yourself out of the latter; you have to buy or recruit yourself out of the former, and it’s far too late for that if you’re a CLANGA loyalist. UA has also been a great cover so far this year too, at 3-1 vs. the money. Bama, up to -8.5 (not that the line will move that much), and the winning quarterback likely vaults to the top of the Heisman race as well — this game is going to be decided by the decision-making and arm of a 19-year-old. The numbers think that’s Keelon, with his far superior weapons.

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New Mexico -22.5 v UTEP:

Train keeps rolling in the ABQ. The Miners are going to struggle mightily on offense against this bunch on the road. UTEP has an anemic offense as it is, one that has to run to win. The Lobos lead the MWC, and are 15th in the nation, in rushing defense. UNM also leads the nation in fumbles forced, fumbles recovered, and overall turnover margin (an ungodly +14 through just 4 games). Football is a game of matchups, and this is simply an awful one for UTEP. New Mexico could even pitch a shutout. UNM up to -23.5

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Underdog With Bite

It looks to be another decent week for the ‘dogs, particularly in the ACC and Big 10. So, we’ll head out to the flyover, and check on Bill O’Brien

Boston College +22 @ SMU

Someone is going to have to explain this Kevin Jennings thing to me. I’ve been watching this guy play for three years, and sure, he racks up yards and scores, but he’s also misses routine throws, makes some baffling decisions, and throws a metric f’ton of interceptions. That’s no different again this year, as the Mustangs lead the country in passing, but also has given it away three times on the ground and with five INTs. Meanwhile, BC comes to town and they’re 24th nationally in passing defense. They’ve allowed six TD passes while notching seven interceptions, allowing just 57% completions, and QBs are averaging 30 points lower in QBR when facing BC. Equally important: SMU is in the bottom third nationally in rushing yards allowed and YPC. The Eagles are a ground and pound team. They can string together drives, exploit mistakes, keep the clock rolling, and make this a game. Data still expect them to lose in the 13-17 point range, but not three touchdowns-plus, even on the road. Boston College.

Ginormous Spread Worth Your While

Sadly, there are no ginormous spreads this week: well, none that Vegas has generated or that pass the quality checks sufficient to fall outside the margin of error and be a “good” wager. So we’ll be giving you a bonus Mortal Lock!

What’s not to love there?

Mortal Lock(s)

This week, we head to the Rust Belt and New England for our Mortal Locks

Toledo -19 @ Ball State

We almost never post MAC games over here. I’ve been at this now for 14 years (God, when did I get old?!), and running Giving Away Money for eight years. I have crafted five algorithms that are not only refined during the off-season, but also are fine-tuned to respond to the current season’s data trends at the end of September. And despite analyzing thousands of games, and hundreds of thousands of data points in a decade and a half, never has a clear model emerged (generally speaking) with any sort of predictive validity that can be extrapolated to the MAC over the course of a season…hell, over the course of a week. Even Vegas boofs this one, with underdogs covering 63% of the time, which is not what you want in an industry that relies on 50-50 bets.

There are, however, occasional games where the noise is filtered out and you can get some modeling that falls within an acceptable margin of error. This is such a game.

The best the MAC has to offer against the worst of the MAC. And not just the MAC’s worst, but Ball State is a serious contender for the worst FBS team in the country — down there with Charlotte and Sacramento State and UMass. With a defense that is again in the Top 20, a balanced offense with big strike capability, a team that thrives off turnovers, and that has an appetite for keeping their foot on the gas, the Rockets could probably double these points and still cover, even on the road. How bad is Ball State? Based on opponent-adjusted stats, out of 138 FBS teams BSU is 138th in passing defense, 138th in rushing defense, 138th in total defense, 136th in creating negative plays, 134th in forcing negative drives (punts, turnovers, downs), and 137th in offense. Its best stat? Rushing — 126th.

Toledo is no worse than 39th in any of those.

So, Toledo it is. By a whole bunch too, most probably.

BONUS MORTAL LOCK:

Indiana -23.5 @ Rutgers: Wanna know how to get the offense healthy? Play Rutgers. Want to put a final coat on a defense that has been stellar and now has two 7th-year seniors back thanks to state courts? Well, come play Rutgers too…offer applies to everyone not named USC. The Hoosiers are going to kick their ass. And after last week’s listless effort/getting exposed by a half-ass defense, Fake Tough Guy Cignetti will run this all the way up if he can. Rutgers doesn’t have a prayer against this team. Hoosiers.

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Alright, that’s a fork in Week 5. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just $7.84 a month, still cheaper than Fairlife Milk — why the odd price? Because that $2.84 is what I am actually charged by Patreon, Apple, and the card processor. I’m only making five bucks.