Giving Away Money: Heisman and National Title Odds — best bets, dark horses, and stinkers

Get out those wallets, degenerates. Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.

With four games under the belts of most teams, stars emerging, and teams flopping, the nerds in Vegas have updated odds for the national title, as well as the Heisman Trophy.

We’re going to give those to you today, via Fan Duel (Hey, sponsor us, you big dummies. We love money). But you can get those anywhere. We’re going to tell you the best bets on the boards, a decent dark horse or two, as well as some stinkers to steer clear of.

Heisman Trophy

Best on the Board:

Darian Mensah 2nd at +370

No, he’s not the favorite, but is a clear favorite, and in a hypothetical two-horse race between Mensah and Jeremiah Smith, the QB figures to get the nod. Why? Just three wide-outs have won the Heisman in thirty years, and one shattered the record books while playing high stakes games the entire season, and the others were two-way players. Smith is a transcendent talent, no question. And he will probably break some OSU and B1G receiving records this year. And, yes, the Buckeyes do play more big games than usual this year, so he’ll get plenty of eyeballs.

But Mensah’s early start has been amazing (against a terrible schedule, I add): He’s already thrown for 1200 yards, and is connecting on a record 88.7% of his throws. He leads the rest of the nation in QBR by a full 20 points and has tossed 14 TDs with no turnovers of any stripe all year. Some teams may bottle him up a tad, but the deep Hurricane running game sets him up perfectly for PA passing as well. If he has an irrefutable game in Notre Dame, and Miami finishes with an ACC title poised to make a CFP run, he’ll win it all…though it may be close. There are some outstanding players in the field this year.

Profitable Dark Horse:

Keelon Russell 4th at +1100

In just four collegiate starts the ‘Bama signal caller has already had three 300+ yard games, and is in the Top 20 in efficiency, yards per attempt, TDs thrown, passer rating, yards, and completion percentage. With four, perhaps five or more nationally televised games against ranked teams, no one is going to get more screentime going down the stretch. Bama in contention for the SEC and a playoff berth earns him a helluva’ lot of votes, if he’s the engine driving the Tide’s success.

Stinker:

Trinidad Chambliss T-4th at +1100

The typical mold of a Heisman winner the last two decades is a QB on a team competing for a national title (and in all-but rare cases, fewer than 3 losses), from a major school in a major conference. The Ole Miss defensive issues and tougher schedule are going to give the Rebs 3-4 losses when it’s all said and done. Chambliss also has already thrown 3 picks on the year, has pedestrian yards per throw, and lags 50-70 points behind the other signal callers in the race in QBR. And, let’s face it. Next to Alabama or Ohio State or Miami, a player with equal stats and impact isn’t going to get the nod. Even Colorado has multiple Heisman winners and national titles. As of now, he’s not even the best QB in Mississippi, much less the best player in the country.

National Championship

Best on the Board:

Georgia 2nd at +500

As with all things Bulldogs, this prognosis is dependent on health. UGA was damn unlucky two years ago when a natty-type team lost their starter under center and were relegated to Gunner Stockton seeing his first action. Without a passing game, the Domers were able to squat the line and simply punish the Dawgs. This year, everyone is healthy, the passing game is hyper efficient, the running back room is deep, and the defense is finally back up to UGA standards. They’ll not escape the SEC without a scrape here or there, but once they’re in the playoffs they’ll be a nightmare for anyone to matchup with. Probably the country’s most complete (even if not talented) team. You do wonder though if the passing game can get it done should the defense and running backs let Kirby down. But you worry about that most years in Athens.

Miami 5th at +700

Let’s see what we have here: Top 3 skills players, top 3 offensive line, top 5 defensive line, world-class talent and speed all in the secondary, Heisman candidate at wideout, Heisman frontrunner at quarterback, and a cushy schedule that permits lots of bench-clearing and low mileage on the starters come the postseason. What on earth is there not to love about that?

Profitable Dark Horses:

Alabama 9th at +2000

You’re really telling me with this offense that can drop half-a-hundie on anyone’s head at any time that the Tide are getting 20:1 odds to win a tournament? I already threw a hundred bucks on it. The defense may still have some warts on it, but if health holds (and for the love of God, even improves), Russell continues to show these developmental leaps, and this team has one of the nation’s best special teams groups, how many opponents can beat Alabama should they even come close to playing a complete game — especially since UA is only going to get better as the season progresses?

Florida 8th at +1900

Like the Tide, a mechanically efficient scoring machine of an offense with a lot of star power leads the way. There are giant holes in the secondary, and you don’t know what happens when Aaron Philo has to win a game passing (he only threw eight passes beyond the LOS against Ole Miss), but it may not matter with the nation’s best 1-2 punch in the backfield, and a very active stout defensive line. Also like ‘Bama, they’re only going to improve as the year goes on and as they get settled in. I still like UA better for a lot of reasons, and none of them involve me being a homer.

Stinkers:

Ole Miss 10th at +2200:

The Rebel defense has some of the worst tackling and run support I’ve seen in a Top 15 team. And despite being a great player. as we saw in Gainesville, withouta healthy Kewan Lacy. the offense just can’t win a shootout..or even keep up with more prolific offenses. Trinidad isn’t a JAG, but there’s just not enough across the board to get them over the kind of hump the defense will present them.

Notre Dame 3rd at +550

Most people haven’t seen ND play this season, not against the dross on their schedule. I’ll save you the tedium: It’s a team that has an outstanding defense, is great across both lines…but doesn’t have its customary firepower in the backfield to control games on the ground. They’re having to win with control passing. And sure, that may work with a pseudo-ACC schedule, but the first team that can slam the brakes on the rushing attack while putting Carr under pressure to make throws to an average wideout group, is going to be the one that beats them. There are many teams that can do that in a playoff, and in the regular season, Miami comes calling and can easily do so. You must have elite QB play to win a national title in the modern era, and ND isn’t elite; it’s good because it has to be at the moment.

Alright. You’re up. What are your hot takes? Who’s your best dark horse? Who’s going to flop miserably?